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Global steel demand is expected to hit 1.72 billion tonnes in 2026. That is up 0.3 percent from 2025. Not a big jump. But the direction matters more than the size. For 2027, they are calling for 1.76 billion tonnes. That is 2.2 percent growth.

Stainless steel is a great building material. It is green and high-performing. It resists rust very well and is mechanically strong. It keeps structures safe and durable in harsh places.

Something strange happened in early 2026. The global aluminum market — usually stable and predictable — suddenly went haywire. Prices shot up. Inventories dried up. Suppliers started calling “force majeure,” a legal term that basically means “we can't deliver what we promised.”

On April 15, 2026, Indonesia’s new nickel ore HPM policy was officially launched. It brings fundamental changes to the previous market pricing logic. The market once completely followed LME nickel prices. Indonesia’s official policy has become a new pricing anchor. The cost support logic for stainless steel has been strengthened accordingly. Affected by this, main futures contracts of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel rose sharply. Has a new round of cost-driven stainless steel market trend already begun?

A global race is heating up. On one side sits Australia, a country rich in iron ore and sunshine. On the other stands the MENA region — the Middle East and North Africa — where solar energy is cheap and governments are spending billions. Both want to lead the world in producing “green iron,” a cleaner way to make steel.

In 2025, China’s total export volume of hot-rolled steel coil (HRC) reached 21.548 million tons. It decreased by 18.2% from the 2024 peak. The Southeast Asian market remained the largest export destination. It had 6.434 million tons of exports, accounting for 29.9% of the total. However, its internal structure changed greatly. Vietnam maintained dominance. It had 4.541 million tons of exports, making up 70.6% of exports to the region. But its exports dropped sharply by 44.8% due to anti-dumping measures. Malaysia and the Philippines grew against the trend. They became safe havens for spillover demand. Indonesia changed from an importer to a regional competitor. A clear three-tier divergence pattern was formed. At present, Japan and South Korea still hold the high-end profit market. Their prices are 20%–50% higher than China’s. Chinese HRC resources are accelerating the strategic transformation. They are shifting from low-price, high-volume sales to quality upgrading.

China has quietly rolled out a major change to its export tax rebate policy. The new rules, which took effect on April 1, are already sending ripples through global metal and new energy supply chains.

At present, “anti-involution” has become a consensus across the entire steel industry. The 2026 Government Work Report proposed to carry out in-depth rectification of “involutionary competition”, sending a clear signal to regulate the development of the industry. This means that “anti-involution” has become one of the important measures to deepen reforms in key sectors. Zhao Minge, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Shougang Group, believes that the steel industry boasts an excellent tradition, with strengths including consistent emphasis on technological innovation, customer demand and industrial restructuring, which will surely serve as the foundation for breaking the “involution” dilemma.