Copper Prices Surge; US Stockpiles Copper

At the start of June, copper futures in New York and London kept rising. Reuters reports the US may decide by late June whether to impose tariffs on refined copper imports. This has made markets nervous. US traders are stocking up early. Also, market arbitrage activity is picking up again. These factors have pushed the global copper market into a period of high-price volatility. International copper prices rose further on June 2.

Data shows that by the close on June 1, the main copper futures contract on the COMEX had risen by 10% in the past month. Over the same period, the three-month copper futures price on the LME rose by about 6.5%.

Reuters says the US Commerce Department will give President Trump a latest copper market assessment report by late June at the latest. It will also advise on whether the US should impose tariffs on refined copper imports.

It is learned that the US plans to impose tariffs on refined copper imports in phases starting in 2027. The initial rate will be 15%, rising to 30% in 2028. The market expects that before the US tariffs take effect, traders will ship large amounts of refined copper to the US to avoid future tariff costs.

However, large-scale early imports have kept pushing up New York copper prices. They have also widened the price gap between the New York and London markets, further stimulating market arbitrage trading. Now, the premium of COMEX copper over LME spot copper has widened to 3%. The premium for forward contracts for March 2027 delivery is about 7%.

Besides short-term trading driven by US tariffs, the boom in US AI data center construction, higher demand for power batteries in new energy vehicles and charging pile infrastructure will support the supply-demand fundamentals of copper in the medium and long term. Bloomberg estimates that by 2045, global copper demand in the energy transition may triple from current levels. The copper market could face a global supply-demand gap as early as this year.