Multiple Positive Factors Converge! Stainless Steel Exports Surpass 410,000 Tonnes in May, Net Exports Hit Year-to-Date High

China’s May stainless steel import and export data has been released: stainless steel exports exceeded the 400,000-tonne threshold to a new yearly high, with net exports jumping 44% month-on-month; imports nearly halved from the previous month amid a sharp overall decline in Indonesian supply shipments.

Export Growth Continues, Imports Slump Nearly Half Month-on-Month

Based on customs statistics, China imported 91,100 tonnes of stainless steel in May 2026, down 46.32% month-on-month and 27.16% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to May reached 636,800 tonnes, a 11.31% drop from the same period last year.

Domestic stainless steel exports stood at 415,700 tonnes in May, rising 5.43% month-on-month but falling 4.73% year-on-year. Total exports for the first five months hit 1.6129 million tonnes, down 23.56% year-on-year.

May’s net stainless steel exports reached 324,600 tonnes, surging 44.52% month-on-month and climbing 4.28% year-on-year. Driven by rapid export recovery and contracting imports, net exports hit a new high for the year. Cumulative net exports from January to May totalled 976,100 tonnes, a 29.88% year-on-year decline.

Three core factors pushed May stainless steel exports above 410,000 tonnes:

1.Insufficient domestic supply in India coupled with another extension of the BIS certification exemption period. China shipped 46,000 tonnes of stainless steel to India this month, hitting a 20-month high and serving as the biggest growth driver.

2.Exports already jumped 27.1% month-on-month in April, with restrictions imposed by earlier export licences gradually fading, sustaining the export recovery momentum in May.

3.Eased global shipping conditions and mild recovery in purchasing demand from the Middle East further bolstered export volumes.

China imported 71,900 tonnes of stainless steel from Indonesia in May 2026, down 50.34% month-on-month and 27.57% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from Indonesia over January–May totalled 528,000 tonnes, falling 10.64% year-on-year. Breakdown as follows:

• Wide cold-rolled coil imports: 60,400 tonnes in May, down 39.68% month-on-month and 13.88% year-on-year
• Wide hot-rolled coil imports: 4,400 tonnes in May, down 74.89% month-on-month and 73.39% year-on-year
• Other products and semi-finished goods imports: 7,100 tonnes (including 5,800 tonnes of billets and 1,200 tonnes of slabs) in May, down 73.82% month-on-month and 43.28% year-on-year

Extended Reading

Indonesia Sees Temporary Export Surge in May, Annual Supply Contraction Remains the Underlying Trend

Per customs data, China imported 909,800 tonnes of ferronickel in May 2026, rising 7.07% month-on-month and 8.05% year-on-year. Of this volume, 883,100 tonnes were sourced from Indonesia, up 8.00% month-on-month and 7.67% year-on-year. Cumulative ferronickel imports from January to May reached 4.3246 million tonnes, a 2.45% year-on-year decrease, including 4.1737 million tonnes imported from Indonesia, down 3.41% year-on-year.

China’s ferronickel imports posted both month-on-month and year-on-year growth in May 2026, with nearly all incremental volumes supplied by Indonesia. The uptick stemmed from sustained high production rates at domestic stainless steel mills combined with low port raw material inventories, fuelling concentrated restocking demand. Meanwhile, some Indonesian smelting lines resumed shipments temporarily, and local manufacturers expedited deliveries to capitalise on policy windows, lifting monthly arrivals.

Nevertheless, cumulative January–May ferronickel imports edged down 2.45% year-on-year, with Indonesian shipments falling 3.41% over the same period. This highlights persistent core constraints: tightened Indonesia RKAB nickel ore mining quotas for the full year and a large number of RKEF smelting lines shifting production to high-grade matte nickel, diverting ferronickel output. The May import rebound was merely a short-term seasonal spike and did not reverse the overall trend of shrinking annual ferronickel supply. While the temporary rise in arrivals marginally eases raw material shortages, solid support for ferronickel supply costs remains intact over the medium to long term.

Nickel Ore Arrivals Surge in May as Philippine Mining Season Ends

Customs statistics show China imported 5.9586 million tonnes of nickel ore in May 2026, jumping 62.60% month-on-month and 52.69% year-on-year. Shipments from the Philippines accounted for 5.4765 million tonnes, rising 61.55% month-on-month and 53.06% year-on-year. Cumulative nickel ore imports from January to May hit 13.8631 million tonnes, up 33.21% year-on-year, of which 12.3194 million tonnes originated from the Philippines, a 42.57% year-on-year increase.

China’s nickel ore imports surged sharply in May 2026, which posted respective month-on-month and year-on-year gains of 61.55% and 53.06%. The sharp upturn was primarily driven by the end of the rainy season in major Philippine mining regions, triggering concentrated mine restarts and bulk shipments. This coincided with rigid purchasing demand from domestic ferronickel producers running at high operating rates and steel mills rushing to replenish inventories.

Total January–May nickel ore imports reached 13.8631 million tonnes, jumping 33.21% year-on-year, with Philippine ore shipments hitting 12.3194 million tonnes (up 42.57% YoY). This reflects domestic manufacturers ramping up purchases of Philippine ore to offset raw material shortages from Indonesia, amid Jakarta’s drastic RKAB nickel ore quota cuts, domestic smelter ore diversion, and sustained declines in Indonesian ferronickel exports to China. Massive May ore arrivals rapidly lifted port nickel ore inventories and pushed ore prices lower, temporarily alleviating raw material cost pressures for domestic ferronickel smelters. Ample nickel ore supply in the short term only partially offsets tight ferronickel availability, and cost support for nickel feedstock will remain in place over the medium and long run.