On April 3, the Trump administration announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act), imposing a 10% baseline tariff globally starting April 5 and additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% on over 60 economies starting April 9. Amid the global "tariff storm," all black commodities fell today.
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According to Shanghai Securities News, several listed steel companies stated that China’s direct steel shipments to the U.S. are minimal, so the new measures will have little effect. While this may affect Chinese steel exported to third-party countries for processing before entering the U.S., the resilience of global steel demand suggests this move will merely adjust trade patterns rather than significantly impact China’s annual steel exports.
A company executive noted: The U.S. imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" will affect domestic steel demand and indirectly reduce total steel consumption. However, as early as March, the National Development and Reform Commission’s 2025 National Economic and Social Development Plan already proposed continuous crude steel production regulation in 2025 to balance supply and demand through supply-side adjustments.
The executive believes that overall, China’s steel industry has pre-emptively prepared policy measures. As long as supply-side controls are maintained, the long-term impact on the sector will be limited.
Data shows that rising U.S.-China trade tensions have led to a decline in Chinese steel exports to the U.S., reaching 890,000 metric tons in 2024—less than 1% of China's total annual exports. Thus, the tariff hike will have limited direct impact on exports.
However, as a major steel importer, the U.S. sources most steel from Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Vietnam—countries that are also key destinations for Chinese steel exports, often via re-export to Europe and the U.S. The unequal tariff rates across regions will pressure China's steel exports. Additionally, tariffs on U.S.-bound manufactured goods (e.g., autos, appliances) will indirectly hit steel demand more significantly.
With steel exports rising in recent years to ease domestic overcapacity, the tariff policy will exacerbate demand pressures, particularly for manufacturing exports. Hot-rolled coil prices are expected to be relatively more affected.
In terms of imports, China imported 6.81 million metric tons of steel in 2024, with 45,300 metric tons (0.7%) from the U.S. Given China’s ample crude steel capacity and declining import trends, direct imports from the U.S. are negligible. Chinese countermeasures will have little impact on domestic supply.
Regarding the tariff fallout, Southwest Futures warned that tariffs could disrupt China’s economic recovery, raise U.S. inflation, slow growth, and increase recession risks. China is expected to swiftly roll out expansionary policies, including monetary easing (e.g., RRR cuts, interest rate reductions) and fiscal stimulus for consumption and real estate.
For future rebar trends, CITIC Futures noted that while near-term supply-demand fundamentals remain resilient amid the peak season, macro volatility persists due to overseas tariffs and domestic policy expectations. On the supply side, recovering steel mill profits have slightly increased molten iron output, though short-process production cuts may limit gains. Demand has improved month-on-month but remains weak year-on-year, with infrastructure spending showing limited steel-intensive projects. Long-term demand is pressured by tariffs. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, balancing macro headwinds and policy support.
