Costs Drive Up Stainless Steel Welded Pipes; Supply-Demand Imbalance Remains a Constraint
Driven by expectations of favorable macro policies and rising costs across the industrial chain, pipe manufacturers have maintained a price-firming sentiment, leading to a rebound in welded pipe prices after a decline and a stronger market atmosphere. As of the 12th, the mainstream transaction price of 304 welded pipes had increased by 200 yuan/ton from the start of the month to 13,000 yuan/ton. While market participants hold a cautiously optimistic attitude, the weak fundamental demand support remains unchanged, and the game between “strong expectations” and “weak fundamentals” dominates the market trend.
Upside Drivers: Dual Impetus from Expectations and Costs
The recent market rally first stems from a shift in macro sentiment. The Central Economic Work Conference was held from December 10 to 11. Prior to this, the market generally expected more policy measures to stabilize economic growth, especially the real estate market. This optimistic forecast injected confidence into the entire market.
The rigid support of raw material costs has become prominent. After a sharp decline in the early stage, the ferronickel market saw a slight recovery in quotations to around 910 yuan/nickel, supported by steel mills’ inventory replenishment demand before the end of the year. The ferrochrome market experienced a temporary supply tightness and synchronized price increases due to multiple factors, including rising ore prices, delayed raw material transportation caused by severe weather in some regions, the start of steel mill bidding and procurement, and tight spot supply. The strength of both raw material segments directly pushed up the production cost of 스테인리스 스틸 coils. Meanwhile, social inventories have declined for several consecutive weeks, easing merchants’ sales pressure. Leading steel mills took the opportunity to raise ex-factory prices, which were ultimately transmitted to the welded pipe segment, forming this round of top-down price adjustments.
Weekly Welded Pipe Market Dynamics
Although the growth rate of stainless steel futures narrowed this week, bullish sentiment remained unchanged. Spot prices of coils generally rose, which in turn boosted the welded pipe market atmosphere. In the Wuxi market, driven by cost increases and the entry of speculative demand, most pipe manufacturers followed up with price hikes. Even after the increase, they still attracted some purchase orders, with moderate transaction performance. In the Wenzhou market, supported by the continuous rise in ferromolybdenum prices, quotations for some 316 pipe products were raised. However, overall transaction growth was limited due to the off-season, and the sustained price increase lacked solid support from end-user demand. Near the weekend, hot-rolled coil prices declined, market activity weakened, and wait-and-see sentiment resurfaced. It is expected that 스테인리스 스틸 welded pipe prices will mainly remain stable in the near future.
Potential Constraints: Supply Pressure and Demand Dilemma
Despite the rise in coil and pipe prices, the fundamental factors restricting their upside potential and sustainability remain unchanged. According to Mysteel data, domestic 43 stainless steel mills are expected to produce 3.2373 million tons in December 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 7.42% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%. Among them, 300-series output is expected to reach 1.7467 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.89%. Although stainless steel production will decrease in December, the reduction is mainly concentrated in the 200-series and 400-series. For the 300-series, the primary raw material for 스테인리스 스틸 welded pipes, the production cut is relatively limited. This means that supply pressure in the coil market still exists, and the possibility of traders lowering prices to clear inventory remains.
A more direct constraint comes from the demand side. In previous years, northern customers engaged in “winter stockpiling”. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, end-users have a longer decision-making window and are generally not in a hurry to make large-scale purchases. Currently, the market maintains a cautiously wait-and-see attitude towards next year’s demand prospects, and the willingness for “winter stockpiling” is significantly lower than in previous years. This procurement mindset of “delaying purchases and reducing scale” may affect overall sales sentiment and force prices to fall.
In the short term, raw material prices will remain the main support for pipe prices. It is understood that transaction performance of welded pipes has been moderate after the price increase, and there is no exclusion of another potential spot price rally. However, in the long run, issues such as the coil supply-demand imbalance, reduced engineering orders, and the possible “delayed purchases and scaled-down stockpiling” will restrict the upside space and sustainability of pipe prices. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and improvements in supply and demand.