비수기 어려움 해결에 실패한 정책, 스테인리스 시장은 돌파구를 기다립니다.
Cost support for stainless steel 거시 정책 기대감 상승으로 소폭 강세
Recently, ferronickel prices have edged up, with the latest transaction price standing at 920-922 yuan per nickel unit (ex-ship with tax). The market is caught in a game between cost support and weak demand. On the cost side, the Indonesian nickel ore market has weakened, and the supply of nickel ore remains relatively loose, which has alleviated the cost pressure of ferronickel to a certain extent. However, ore prices are still at a high level. Indonesia’s nickel ore price in August is expected to drop slightly by 1 US dollar, with limited decline and solid bottom support. On the supply side, some iron plants have reduced production load due to losses, but the oversupply pressure has not subsided. Quotations remain firm at 920-930 yuan per nickel unit (ex-ship with tax), and long-term orders are mainly at flat average prices. Steel mills are mostly in a wait-and-see attitude in raw material procurement. In addition, scrap 스테인리스 스틸 has been significantly substituted (with a premium of 35 yuan per nickel unit), making ferronickel far more economical than scrap stainless steel.
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페로크롬의 경우 석탄 가격 상승과 크롬 광석 선물 가격의 보합세로 인해 페로크롬 가격이 바닥에서 안정화되었습니다. 8월에는 TISCO와 칭산강철의 조달 가격이 연속적으로 100~200위안 인하되었습니다. 현재 페로크롬 가격은 약하게 안정되어 있습니다. 향후 페로크롬 제철소의 조달 가격 하락의 영향을 받아 현물 가격은 여전히 약간의 조정의 여지가 있습니다. 그러나 단기 소매 페로크롬 가격은 거의 변하지 않았고, 공장들은 주로 주문량을 납품하는 데 집중하고 있습니다.
스테인리스 스틸 정책 영향에 따른 시장 변동과 반등, 향후 관망 심리가 심화됨
After 스테인리스 스틸 futures prices hit a five-year low in late June, there were intensive calls for “anti-involution” and elimination of backward production capacity, leading to a fluctuating rebound in stainless steel futures prices, with the highest reaching 12,875 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 500 yuan/ton from the low point of this round of prices. Subsequently, it fluctuated and adjusted around 12,700 yuan. At the 6th Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, it was clearly proposed to regulate enterprises’ low-price disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Affected by the news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s steady growth plan at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on July 18, the stimulus of “anti-involution” was further strengthened. Black commodities rebounded strongly this week. The combined force of policy and sentiment drove the market upward. The main stainless steel futures contract successfully broke through the strong resistance level at the 60-day moving average and the 13,000 yuan mark, with the intraday high reaching 13,130 yuan. However, it failed to stand firm, and the market fell rapidly. Long funds exited, while short funds took the opportunity to exert force, with the lowest touching 12,760 yuan/ton.
Behind this fluctuation, despite the support of anti-involution policies, the weak fundamentals of industrial supply and demand continue to exert pressure. In addition, the Shanghai Futures Exchange approved Hongwang Holdings Group Co., Ltd. as a stainless steel futures delivery warehouse. The new delivery rules have increased the potential warehouse receipt supply in the market, curbing the excessive premium of futures prices. The premium of near-month contracts has narrowed rapidly, limiting the upward space of futures prices.
As market sentiment cooled, 스테인리스 스틸 prices pulled back by 100-150 yuan/ton. Since current stainless steel prices are at a five-year low, and considering the cost of goods procurement, under the influence of off-season demand, agents and traders mostly adopt the operation of stabilizing prices to promote transactions. The recent price increase atmosphere has also driven downstream replenishment and speculative demand, accelerating the digestion of social inventory.
업계 비수기로 인해 국내외 스테인리스강 수요는 계속 압박을 받고 있습니다.
수요 측면은 비수기이며, 시장 반등 이후 관망 심리가 뚜렷하게 강화되었습니다.
전통적인 다운스트림 부문의 수요: The pace of new real estate construction is slow. The current off-season demand has led to low load demand for 스테인리스 스틸 in fields such as construction hardware and decorative pipes, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand. However, policy expectations (such as the steady growth plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) may boost future demand. From the perspective of the three major terminal white goods industries, according to the report of China IOL, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a decrease of 4.9% compared with the actual production in the same period last year.
신흥 다운스트림 부문의 수요: Integrating the concept of low-carbon and environmental protection design, the extreme environment of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project has driven the demand for high-end stainless steel. Photovoltaic brackets and Chengdu-Chongqing infrastructure construction have supported the demand for 316L stainless steel, but the increment cannot offset the overall weakness. Under the trend of lightweight new energy vehicles, the growth in the usage of stainless steel in battery brackets has been partially replaced by aluminum alloys. Automobile enterprises also have an expected decline in growth rate under the anti-involution atmosphere.
다자간 협정 관세 정책이 점진적으로 시행됨에 따라 해외 수입업체의 재고 보충이 완료되어 주문이 크게 감소했으며, 일부 해외 지역은 재고 압박이 가중되고 있습니다. 또한 중앙 및 동남아시아 시장은 지정학적 리스크와 물류 병목 현상으로 인해 지역 공급망의 안정성에 영향을 미치고 시장이 하락세를 보이고 있습니다.
According to statistics from China Customs, domestic 스테인리스 스틸 export orders have been damaged due to U.S. tariffs and new European policies. Domestic stainless steel exports continued to decline in June, with a cumulative decrease of 80,700 tons from April to June this year, a drop of 17.14%. It is expected that stainless steel exports will remain at a low level in July.
요약
Overall, macro policies have stimulated market sentiment in the short term, and cost support for stainless steel has slightly strengthened, but the market is still in a period of tug-of-war between “policy support and weak fundamentals”. Although policies such as “anti-involution” have driven the rise of the main futures contract, and steel mills have raised listed prices accordingly, the reality of weak terminal demand remains unchanged. At this stage, the market is returning to supply and demand fundamentals, and futures and spot prices have declined. We need to view market changes rationally. For a trend reversal in prices, we still need to wait for clear signs of improvement on both supply and demand sides. In the medium and long term, we need to continue to pay attention to changes in U.S. tariff policies and whether terminal demand can be substantially improved.