Recent Performance and Future Outlook of the Stainless Steel Market
In 2026, the official implementation of the New Two Policies (large-scale equipment renewal and consumer product trade-in), coupled with multiple factors such as policy disturbances in Indonesia’s nickel ore sector, has led the recent 스테인리스 스틸 market to operate in a volatile and strong pattern. Driven by policies and rising raw material prices, the short-term market has performed strongly, while in the long run, the industry is moving towards high-end transformation amid changes in supply and demand and policy impacts.
Recent Operation of the Stainless Steel Market
The raw material side has become the core driving force of the recent market. Nickel and chromium prices have diverged but provided strong overall support. Concerns over tight supply, triggered by Indonesia’s planned nickel ore quota cuts in 2026, have driven a sharp rise in ferronickel prices and solid cost support. Ferrochrome prices have remained firm due to the fragile supply chain in South Africa. In addition, the long-term contract procurement price of high-carbon ferrochrome for steel mills in South China in February 2026 stood at RMB 8,245 per 50 base tons (cash-included factory price with tax), an increase of RMB 50 month-on-month, forming a bottom-line support for costs. Driven by expectations of raw material price hikes and the continuous entry of market institutions, 스테인리스 스틸 futures have operated strongly since January, market sentiment has gradually recovered, and the spot market has followed the upward trend in tandem. However, spot transactions have seen high prices with thin trading, dominated by rigid demand purchases.
On the supply side, output saw a slight growth. The planned production in January 2026 reached 3.4065 million tons, up 4.48% month-on-month and 19.05% year-on-year. Specifically, 200-series stainless steel output stood at 1.0331 million tons, up 9.85% month-on-month and 34.08% year-on-year; 300-series at 1.7632 million tons, up 0.92% month-on-month and 12.58% year-on-year; 400-series at 610,200 tons, up 6.53% month-on-month and 16.27% year-on-year. In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel statistics, as of mid-January 2026, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 mainstream warehouses across the country reached 927,200 tons. Inventories of the 200-series declined, with a more significant drop in hot-rolled products than cold-rolled ones; 300-series inventories also fell, with hot-rolled products seeing a steeper decline than cold-rolled ones; for the 400-series, cold-rolled inventories increased while hot-rolled inventories decreased, with hot-rolled resources being the main focus of destocking.
The demand side has received initial impetus from the New Two Policies. Demand in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles and robots has remained robust in the traditional off-season, with the expected growth in demand for high-end stainless steel in the new energy vehicle sector in January. However, as the end of the year approaches, demand for stainless steel in traditional sectors such as construction projects and industrial products has been weak. In addition, according to China’s customs data, the cumulative net export volume of stainless steel from January to December 2025 reached approximately 3.5119 million tons, an increase of 372,400 tons or 11.9% year-on-year.
Future Outlook for the Stainless Steel Market
On the cost front, Indonesia’s nickel ore mining quota is expected to be reduced in 2026, leading to an anticipated expansion of the supply gap, and the tightening of nickel ore supply will push up costs. Chromium ore supply remains tight, providing stable cost support, and the bottom price of ferrochrome is moving upward. Therefore, the cost support for 스테인리스 스틸 will remain strong in the short term. In terms of profits, with the optimization of the supply and demand pattern and the increase in the proportion of high-end products, industry profits are expected to see a moderate recovery, and the profit advantage of high-end products will be significantly stronger than that of ordinary varieties.
In terms of supply, the policy of regulating crude steel output continues to take effect, with a strict ban on illegal new capacity additions. Coupled with rising environmental protection costs, the growth rate of China’s stainless steel crude steel output is expected to slow down in 2026, and the pattern of low-price competition in the industry is expected to improve.
On the demand side, the New Two Policies will serve as the core driver of demand for the whole year. High-end equipment manufacturing, lightweight new energy vehicles and other sectors will become new demand growth points, and the demand for high-end special stainless steel is expected to rise. However, demand in the traditional construction sector is dragged down by the sluggish real estate market, and the overall growth rate of domestic demand may remain moderate. In terms of exports, affected by the new export license policy implemented since January, exports are expected to decline, so enterprises need to further optimize the export structure.
In summary, the 2026 New Two Policies have injected core impetus into the stainless steel industry. The short-term market is supported by raw materials and policies, while in the long run, the industry is moving towards high-end transformation and development under the influence of policies. In terms of prices, under policies such as output control, the pattern of low-price competition in the industry is expected to gradually improve, and price fluctuations will tend to be rational.