Will Indonesia impose a windfall profit tax and push up stainless steel costs?

스테인리스 스틸 prices in Wuxi rebounded across the board this week. Agents of Tsingshan took the lead in raising prices, and spot prices recovered last week’s losses. Stainless steel futures rose sharply during the week. As the end of the month approached, agents increased deliveries to meet their quota, leading to three consecutive weeks of falling inventory. As of Friday, the main stainless steel contract rose 325 yuan per ton from last week to 14,390 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.31%. Below is a review of this week’s market performance and outlook for the future.

Series 300：Futures hit a high of 14,500; spot trading rose first then weakened

Prices of 304 cold-rolled and hot-rolled products rose across the board this week. By Friday, the mainstream base price of private 304 cold-rolled coil (four-foot) in Wuxi was 14,050 yuan per ton, up 150 yuan per ton from the previous Friday. Private hot-rolled products were quoted at 13,850 yuan per ton, also up 150 yuan per ton.

At the start of the week, Tsingshan agents raised prices by 100–200 yuan. Traders became more willing to hold firm prices, and offers moved up gradually. In the middle of the week, as downstream restocking demand eased, trading cooled down. However, news that Indonesia plans to impose a windfall tax on nickel strengthened expectations of tighter nickel pig iron supply, further supporting 스테인리스 스틸 prices.

This week, the mainstream ex-factory price of high-nickel pig iron fell 15 yuan per nickel point to 1,075 yuan. Ferrochrome prices remained flat at 8,600 yuan per 50 base ton. The theoretical production cost of 304 cold-rolled coil is 13,970 yuan per ton. In theory, steel mills are currently profitable.

Inventory of Series 300 in Wuxi fell by 3,300 tons this week to 421,400 tons. Cold-rolled inventory fell by 4,800 tons, while hot-rolled inventory rose by 1,500 tons.

Series 200：Spot prices rose continuously; cold-rolled inventory fell while hot-rolled rose

Futures strengthened this week, and 201 spot prices kept rising. On Monday afternoon, Tsingshan agents raised 201J2 cold-rolled prices by 100 yuan to 7,600 base. On Tuesday morning, agents from Beigang and Desheng quoted prices near 7,500 base. Traders sold at firm prices.

Near the weekend, futures turned weak and fell. Downstream buyers became cautious, and trading at high prices slowed. Traders cut prices by 20 yuan to make sales. Low-priced cold-rolled resources from earlier price increases were quickly sold off, leading to a small drop in inventory.

Series 400：Cost support is firm; prices remain stable

Prices of 430 products moved weakly this week. By Friday, state-owned 430 cold-rolled coil in Wuxi spot market was quoted at 7,750–7,800 yuan per ton. State-owned hot-rolled coil was quoted at 6,850 yuan per ton. Both were unchanged from last week.

Arrivals from Taigang were low this week, so new market supply was limited. Agents also picked up goods in large quantities at the end of the month, slightly reducing mill pre-stock. However, downstream purchases remained mostly rigid demand. End-use demand recovered mildly, and inventory decreased slowly.

요약

Series 300

Wuxi Series 300 스테인리스 스틸 coil prices are expected to remain strong and volatile next week. Steel mills will maintain high production but continue to control and allocate goods, so spot supply will stay steady. Operating rates of downstream manufacturers are recovering steadily, supporting continuous rigid demand. However, demand during the traditional peak season has been mild, and end users are cautious at high prices. Nickel and chrome costs stay high, providing strong cost support. Uncertainty from the Iran-US conflict still needs attention.

Series 200

Copper prices rebounded slightly from last week, and manganese prices rose further above 18,000 yuan, remaining high. This has increased production costs for 201 products. Steel mills set April futures prices for 201J2 cold-rolled coil at 7,600 base and hot-rolled at 7,300 yuan per ton. Market sentiment is generally optimistic.

Still, high supply expectations remain. If demand fails to follow up and inventory builds up, it may pressure upward price movement.

Series 400

In April, Taigang and Tsingshan high-chromium tender prices rose 150 yuan per 50 base ton month-on-month. This provides strong cost support for Series 400 스테인리스 스틸, with solid bottom support for spot prices.

Steel mill production rose sharply in March, but recent arrivals have been normal. With rigid downstream demand, spot inventory has fallen for three consecutive weeks, easing short-term supply pressure. 430 prices are expected to stay stable and firm in the short term. Future focus will be on steel mill production and demand recovery.