Copper – Prices May Re-enter the Uptrend After Short-term Correction
At the end of October, LME three-month 구리 prices broke through $11,200 per ton, and the Shanghai Copper Index surged past 89,240 yuan, both hitting all-time highs. Beyond the bullish drive from improved short-term macro policy expectations, the rally was fueled by frequent unexpected disruptions on the copper mine side that intensified supply contradiction expectations, as well as the inflow of substantial speculative capital.
https://www.sumecmetal.com/As market enthusiasm cooled, 구리 prices entered a high-level correction phase in November. Supported by factors including the difficulty in alleviating the tight copper mine supply in the short to medium term, the gradual elevation of copper’s strategic resource status amid global energy transition, and rising copper consumption driven by emerging market development, copper remains a relatively favorable long-positioned asset in the medium to long term.
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Frequent Copper Mine Disruptions Intensify Supply Tightness Logic
1. Long-term Structural Contradictions: Underinvestment and Deteriorating Resource Endowments
Underinvestment: A large 구리 mine typically requires 8-10 years from exploration, feasibility study, and construction to commissioning, involving huge investment and high risks. After the end of the commodity “super cycle” in the mid-2010s, mining companies turned cautious on capital expenditures. Subsequently, the rise of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investments and investors’ avoidance of fossil fuels amid global energy transition did not fully translate into preference for base metals, leading to long-term constraints on capital flowing into new copper mine projects.
Declining Ore Grade: The average grade of global copper ore has dropped from 1%-2% several decades ago to less than 0.7% currently. High-grade copper mines that are easy to mine are increasingly depleted. Newly discovered deposits are often located deeper, more remote areas or regions with complex geological conditions, resulting in a significant increase in mining costs and further dampening investment enthusiasm.
2. Frequent Mine Disruptions Amplify Supply Chain Vulnerability
In 2025, multiple large 구리 mines experienced unexpected production cuts and suspensions, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine earthquake and accidents at El Teniente and Grasberg. These incidents caused global copper concentrate supply growth to fall short of expectations again in 2025, with the full-year growth rate continuing to decline from 2024. SMM predicts that global sulfide copper concentrate output will reach 19.48 million metal tons in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 220,000 metal tons.
Unexpected reductions in mine supply directly worsened the global copper concentrate supply-demand balance. Since the third quarter, most institutions have lowered their forecasts for global copper mine growth. The ICSG sharply revised down its 2025 global mine production growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.4%.
Against the backdrop of unbalanced copper mine supply and demand, TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) has accelerated its decline. As of the end of October, Mysteel’s 25% clean copper concentrate forward spot TC composite index stood at -$42.5 per dry ton, a 144.88% drop from the high of $94.7 per dry ton in the third quarter of 2023, and significantly lower than the historical average of $61.54 per dry ton between 2015 and 2024.
3. Copper Mine Shortage May Further Transmit to Domestic Smelting Sector
For domestic smelters, supported by long-term contract TC (set at $21.25 per dry ton in 2025) and by-product contributions to smelting profits, refined copper output will remain high in 2025. However, the market expects that long-term contract TC in 2026 may remain at zero or even turn negative in some negotiations.
Notably, Antofagasta locked in 50% of its 2026 ore volume with major Chinese smelters in June 2025 at a long-term processing fee of $0 per dry ton and 0 cents per pound, marking the first entry into the era of zero processing fees. The outcome of negotiations for the remaining 50% of ore volume in December 2025 has become a key focus for the market.
Based on this, Chinese smelters may face significant loss pressures in the later stage, and joint production cuts cannot be ruled out.
Copper’s “Strategic Resource” Attribute Becomes More Prominent
With accelerated global investment in power-related industries, the commodity market is paying increasing attention to copper’s strategic value and medium-to-long-term supply-demand prospects. Many countries have included 구리 in their critical mineral lists.
From electric vehicles, renewable energy and energy storage stations, power transmission and distribution networks to artificial intelligence (AI) computing infrastructure, copper runs through almost every key link in the current energy transition and intelligence boom. The industry generally expects this trend to continue driving global copper demand growth in the future.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the proportion of copper used in the new energy sector will exceed 30% by 2030. Global copper demand for “digital infrastructure” will grow at an average annual rate of over 15% in 2025, with total demand potentially reaching 1 million tons by 2030.
Meanwhile, demand from traditional sectors continues to provide support: China’s UHV construction and the renovation of aging power grids in Europe and the United States (with an average service life of over 40 years) keep the proportion of copper used in the power industry stable at 45%-48%. Accelerated urbanization in emerging markets such as India drives copper demand in the construction sector to grow by over 10%, forming a demand pattern of “traditional support + emerging explosion”. This consolidates copper’s strategic resource attribute and attracts macro capital to layout in advance.
Unignorable Overseas Demand Growth
At the macro level, the global economy is transitioning from “stagflation concerns” to “moderate recovery”. Particularly, the accelerated industrialization and electrification process in emerging markets, coupled with their relatively rapid development of infrastructure and manufacturing, will drive basic copper demand growth and support China’s exports to remain highly prosperous.
Since the end of 2024, the market has been worried about China’s export trend. Pessimism reached a peak in early April this year after Trump proposed the “reciprocal tariff” policy. However, actual export performance has continued to exceed expectations, repeatedly breaking market pessimism. From January to October 2025, China’s cumulative exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year (compared with +5.2% in the same period last year), showing strong resilience.
In terms of export regional structure in the first 10 months, China’s exports to ASEAN and the EU accounted for 17.5% and 14.9% respectively, followed by 13.8% combined for Africa and Latin America. Exports to the US accounted for 11.4%, significantly lower than 19.2% at the end of 2018.
High-end manufacturing products are China’s competitive advantage: automobile exports increased by 34.0% year-on-year in October, ship exports by 68.4%, and integrated circuit exports by 26.9%; lithium battery exports rose by 26.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters.
Exports of wires and cables directly related to copper maintain rapid growth. According to General Administration of Customs data, China’s total wire and cable exports reached 252,300 tons in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.38%. Among them, copper wire and cable exports were 124,800 tons, a year-on-year surge of 45.38%.
Reflexive Suppression of Micro Consumption by High Prices
High copper prices have significantly increased the raw material capital occupation of downstream enterprises. Especially small and medium-sized enterprises, with limited financing channels and weak cash flow reserves, face a dilemma of “losing money when purchasing” or “having no money to purchase”. Eventually, they are forced to reduce production capacity or withdraw from the market.
