2025 Report on China’s Hot-Rolled Steel Coil Exports to Southeast Asia

In 2025, China’s total export volume of hot-rolled steel coil (HRC) reached 21.548 million tons. It decreased by 18.2% from the 2024 peak. The Southeast Asian market remained the largest export destination. It had 6.434 million tons of exports, accounting for 29.9% of the total. However, its internal structure changed greatly. Vietnam maintained dominance. It had 4.541 million tons of exports, making up 70.6% of exports to the region. But its exports dropped sharply by 44.8% due to anti-dumping measures. Malaysia and the Philippines grew against the trend. They became safe havens for spillover demand. Indonesia changed from an importer to a regional competitor. A clear three-tier divergence pattern was formed. At present, Japan and South Korea still hold the high-end profit market. Their prices are 20%–50% higher than China’s. Chinese HRC resources are accelerating the strategic transformation. They are shifting from low-price, high-volume sales to quality upgrading.

I. Exports to Southeast Asia: Total Volume Declines, “Single Dominance” Loosens

In 2025, China’s total HRC exports were 21.548 million tons. It was down 18.2% from 26.329 million tons in 2024. This ended three consecutive years of growth. In terms of regional distribution, Southeast Asia remained the top export market. It had 6.434 million tons of exports, accounting for 29.9% of global exports. This share dropped slightly from 33.5% in 2023 and 32.6% in 2024. But the nearly 30% proportion confirms Southeast Asia’s strategic role as a “stabilizer” for China’s HRC exports.

In 2024, China’s global HRC exports hit a record high of 26.329 million tons. In 2025, they fell to 21.548 million tons. Exports to Southeast Asia followed the global trend closely. In 2024, they reached an all-time high of 8.593 million tons. In 2025, they dropped to 6.434 million tons. This is a 25.1% decrease. This drop was a little steeper than the global decline. On a monthly basis, in September and October 2024, monthly exports to Southeast Asia were over 1.2 million tons. In October 2024, they hit 1.296 million tons. This was a three-year peak. In 2025, overall exports trended downward. There was a short rebound in October and November 2025. In 2024, the surge was mainly driven by the “rush export” effect. It happened before Vietnam’s anti-dumping investigation. In 2025, the decline was due to widespread wait-and-see sentiment. The investigation had been carried out. At the same time, regional capacity expansion accelerated. It replaced import demand.

China’s 2025 HRC exports to Southeast Asia had a clear pattern. It was single dominance and three-tier divergence. Vietnam kept absolute leadership. It had 4.541 million tons of exports, accounting for 70.6% of the regional total. But its export volume dropped 44.8% from the 2024 peak. It faced dual pressure. One was anti-dumping measures. The other was local capacity growth. This marked a shift. China’s exports to Vietnam changed from rapid growth to moderation.

Meanwhile, regional divergence became more intense. On the growth track, Malaysia’s exports rose 78.9% over three years. They reached 739,000 tons. Malaysia became a haven for spillover orders from Vietnam. The Philippines’ exports nearly doubled to 137,000 tons. It relies fully on imports. This shows great potential. Myanmar and Laos had small base volumes. But their imports more than doubled. This reflects booming border trade. On the pressure track, Thailand and Indonesia’s exports dropped. They fell 36.6% and 12.1% respectively from 2023. Local substitution played a big role. On the stable track, Singapore had the smallest volume. It fluctuated between 7,000 and 16,000 tons. This divergence shows an underlying logic. Vietnam contracted because of policy shocks. Malaysia and the Philippines absorbed demand with geographical advantages. Indonesia and Thailand reduced imports as local production expanded. Southeast Asia has changed. It is no longer just an export destination. It has become a critical benchmark. It tests the resilience of China’s steel exports.

II. Price Landscape: Price Differentiation Logic of the “Three-Tier Divergence”

In 2024 and 2025, the average FOB prices of China’s HRC exports to eight Southeast Asian countries differed greatly. Price trends matched changes in export volumes. They showed different supply-demand dynamics and trade policy environments in each market.

By price tier, the Southeast Asian market is divided into three groups.

First tier (above $500/ton): The Philippines was the highest at $529/ton. It relies fully on imports to support high prices. Singapore was at $535/ton. High-specification demand kept its prices stable. Indonesia’s price rose by $10 to $522/ton. It mainly imports high-end products. Thailand’s price increased by $9 to $516/ton. Demand for automotive steel supported its price.

Second tier ($480–500/ton): Vietnam’s price fell by $13 to $482/ton. Anti-dumping pressure made it a price trough. Malaysia’s price dropped slightly by $1 to $489/ton. This was consistent with its re-export trade model.

Third tier (below $480/ton): Myanmar’s price was $475/ton. Laos’ price was $480/ton. They have small-scale border trade with low prices.

The link between prices and export volumes shows market characteristics. Vietnam saw both volume and price drop. Malaysia had volume growth and stable prices. Indonesia and Thailand had falling volumes but rising prices. The Philippines had volume growth but lower prices. Singapore kept stable volume and price. This divergence tells us three things. Trade frictions suppress prices. Local capacity expansion pushes prices up. Full import dependence keeps prices high. Price has become a key indicator. It reflects the supply-demand and policy environment of each market.