Multiple Headwinds Slow Down Aluminum Billet Destocking Process

As of this cycle (December 11-18, 2025; the same below), according to Mysteel’s statistics, the total weekly molten aluminum consumption for domestic primary aluminum-based semi-finished products reached 547,780 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,210 tons from the previous period.
This week, the weekly molten aluminum consumption of the five billet categories showed differentiated performance: the usage of aluminum rods and aluminum bars increased compared with last week, while the output of cast-rolled coils, primary aluminum-based alloy ingots, and slab ingots declined.

With December already halfway through, the weekly molten aluminum consumption fluctuations this month have generally followed a trajectory of stability with slight adjustments. Although the total volume decreased in the early to mid-month, the reduction was relatively limited. In this cycle, the downward trend paused and turned to growth; however, compared with the weekly consumption volume at the end of November, there is still a slight gap.
In terms of the weekly consumption proportion of each category this week, the overall structure remained stable with minor adjustments among categories. The shares of cast-rolled coils, slab ingots, and primary aluminum-based alloy ingots narrowed slightly from the previous period, while those of aluminum bars and rods increased moderately.
According to Mysteel data, the total weekly output of domestic primary aluminum-based semi-finished products this period was 619,330 tons, a week-on-week increase of 810 tons. Last week, the weekly output of all five billet categories decreased, but this week, the output fluctuations showed mixed trends among different billets.
Aluminum Water Bars
The weekly output increased by 0.36% week-on-week. Production in most provinces remained stable. According to the survey, output fluctuations this week were mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Xinjiang, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia. Among them, Guangxi and Xinjiang recorded output growth, while Shandong and Inner Mongolia saw a decline. Relatively speaking, the output reduction was mainly due to order adjustments and product mix optimization. The growth, on the one hand, came from the gradual release of production capacity of new projects, and on the other hand, from the resumption of production after previous cuts.
Aluminum Rods
The weekly output rose by 1.12% week-on-week. After the recent correction in aluminum prices, downstream delivery speed accelerated, overall demand recovered slightly, and transactions improved marginally compared with the previous period. Meanwhile, processing fees increased moderately, driving the recovery of some previously reduced output.
Cast-Rolled Coils
The weekly output decreased by 1.48% week-on-week. At present, environmental protection-related production restrictions have been strengthened in Henan and other regions, leading to more enterprise maintenance and a significant contraction in supply. Meanwhile, transportation in Xinjiang has been hindered, making it difficult for local cast-rolled coil billets to be transported out of the region, thus suppressing the production enthusiasm of some manufacturers.
Slab Ingots
The weekly output fell by 0.21% week-on-week, and the downward trend continued, though the decline narrowed gradually. Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level. Currently, environmental inspections and production restrictions have been launched in some regions. Coupled with further contraction in off-season demand, the operating rate of enterprises has declined.
Primary Aluminum-Based Alloy Ingots
The weekly output decreased by 0.41% week-on-week. Currently, aluminum prices fluctuate frequently. Although demand has not weakened significantly, enterprises’ willingness to take delivery has cooled slightly. Purchases are mainly based on daily rigid demand, with orders placed based on price movements, resulting in a moderate slowdown in the production efficiency of alloy ingot manufacturers.
According to Mysteel statistics, the total finished product inventory at aluminum billet manufacturers’ warehouses this period was 233,350 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,250 tons.
The overall factory inventory decreased again, but the decline rate was significantly lower than that of the previous period. Notably, the inventory of aluminum bars at manufacturers showed a quantitative increase. This period, the finished product inventories of cast-rolled coils, primary aluminum-based alloy ingots, aluminum rods, and slab ingots all decreased. The slight drop in high aluminum prices stimulated some purchasing sentiment. Combined with the reduced production momentum of some categories and the slow recovery efficiency after production cuts or suspensions, the destocking process was maintained. The inventory performance of aluminum bars was different from other categories. It is reported that the inventory increase of aluminum bars was mainly concentrated in Xinjiang. Local merchants generally reflected tight transportation capacity and a shortage of vehicles, leading to the backlog of some finished products. Meanwhile, the factory inventories in most other provinces also recorded slight increases during this statistical period, mainly due to order fluctuations and price factors.
At present, environmental protection-related production restrictions in some regions have had a certain impact on both supply and demand. Meanwhile, aluminum prices remain at a high level, making the sentiment of fear of high prices lingering. Although spot market transactions improved slightly during the price correction period, the prolonged price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers has left market participants fatigued. In the short term, with the year-end approaching, stabilizing production and accelerating capital recovery may be the common goals of all merchants.