{"id":5622,"date":"2025-09-17T11:48:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T03:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/?post_type=news&p=5622"},"modified":"2025-11-28T17:07:35","modified_gmt":"2025-11-28T09:07:35","slug":"copper-the-tariff-takes-effect","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/zh\/news\/copper-the-tariff-takes-effect\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e02\u573a\u805a\u7126\u3011\u94dc\uff1a\u5173\u7a0e\u751f\u6548\u540e"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5c3d\u65e9\u5b9e\u65bd \u94dc<\/a> \u5173\u7a0e\u5c06\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u5730\u6d88\u9664\u4e4b\u524d\u7531\u5173\u7a0e\u9884\u671f\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5957\u5229\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u4e5f\u5c06\u7ed3\u675f\u3002LME \u548c\u56fd\u5185\u94dc\u73b0\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u7684\u4f9b\u9700\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u9762\u5c06\u9010\u6b65\u7f13\u89e3\uff0cCOMEX \u94dc\u5e93\u5b58\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5c06\u968f\u7740 7 \u6708\u4efd\u8d27\u7269\u5230\u6e2f\u800c\u7ec8\u6b62\u3002   <\/p>\n\n\n

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Image Source\uff1a699pic.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Recently, Trump suddenly announced tariffs on the \u94dc<\/a> industry, stating that the United States will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective August 1, 2025. Upon the news release, COMEX copper prices surged to nearly $5.896 per pound, hitting a new all-time high again. Correspondingly, the US-London spread widened rapidly to over $3,100 per ton in a short period, equivalent to a 31.5% increase. Later, as market sentiment eased, the CL spread gradually pulled back to $2,500-$2,600 per ton, accounting for an increase of approximately 26%-27%.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56de\u987e \u94dc<\/a> \u53d7\u4eca\u5e74\u5173\u7a0e\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u81ea\u5e74\u521d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u58f0\u79f0\u5c06\u5bf9\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u548c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7b49\u56fd\u5f81\u6536\u989d\u5916\u5173\u7a0e\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u4f26\u94dc\u4ef7\u5dee\u5f00\u59cb\u6269\u5927\u30023 \u6708\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u8fdb\u53e3\u94a2\u94dd\u5f81\u6536 25% \u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u540e\uff0c\u94dc\u5173\u7a0e\u9884\u671f\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u4f26\u4ef7\u5dee\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u5428 $1,000 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u8fd9\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\u94dc\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u5957\u5229\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u94dc\u73b0\u8d27\u4ece\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u533a\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u5411\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u94dc\u5e02\u573a\u533a\u57df\u6027\u7ed3\u6784\u77db\u76fe\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c LME \u7684\u5e93\u5b58\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u800c COMEX \u7684\u5e93\u5b58\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of the end of June, US visible \u94dc<\/a> inventories stood at approximately 210,000 tons, an increase of nearly 120,000 tons compared to early March. Non-US copper inventories were about 285,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 400,000 tons from early March. Considering that the second quarter coincided with China’s peak consumption season, coupled with factors such as a sharp drop in copper prices and new energy rush installations stimulating domestic downstream demand, excluding the impact of consumption, China’s net imports from January to May decreased by approximately 260,000 tons year-on-year, which is the direct impact of changes in overseas trade flows.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u5173\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684\u7cbe\u70bc\u6cb9\u5305\u62ec \u94dc<\/a> \u4eca\u5e74 1 \u6708\u81f3 5 \u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7535\u89e3\u94dc\u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u7ea6\u4e3a 68 \u4e07\u5428\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u52a0 38 \u4e07\u5428\u3002\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u94dc\u8fdb\u53e3\u5230\u6e2f\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u622a\u81f3 7 \u6708\u521d\uff0c\u7ea6\u6709 78 \u4e07\u5428\u7535\u89e3\u94dc\u8fd0\u62b5\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u6b63\u5e38\u5e74\u4efd\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6bcf\u5e74\u8fdb\u53e3\u7cbe\u70bc\u94dc\u7ea6 70 \u4e07\u81f3 90 \u4e07\u5428\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u5df2\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f80\u5e74\u5168\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u6ee1\u8db3\u5168\u5e74\u9700\u6c42\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breaking it down, the growth in US copper imports became apparent after March, with the increments mainly coming from Chile (207,000 tons) and the Congo (61,000 tons), contributing approximately 54% and 16% respectively. From Chile’s customs export data, Chile exported about 722,000 tons of refined copper from January to May, of which 354,000 tons went to the US (an increase of 190,000 tons year-on-year), while exports to China and South Korea were 123,000 tons and 33,000 tons respectively (a decrease of approximately 180,000 tons and 40,000 tons year-on-year). Thus, the opening of the arbitrage window has diverted more Chilean copper to the US, at the expense of some shares originally destined for Asia. According to China’s customs data, China imported about 1.346 million tons of electrolytic copper from January to May, including 527,000 tons from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (a decrease of approximately 18,000 tons year-on-year). However, Congo’s copper production increased by about 44,000 tons in the first half of the year, which roughly matches the growth in US imports. Therefore, before the tariff expectations were implemented, the arbitrage space in spot trade flows led to most circulable electrolytic copper in non-US regions flowing into the US.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u94dc\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u63d0\u524d\u5b9e\u65bd\u5c06\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u5730\u6d88\u9664\u4e4b\u524d\u56e0\u5173\u7a0e\u9884\u671f\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5957\u5229\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u52a8\u4e5f\u5c06\u7ed3\u675f\u3002LME\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u94dc\u5e02\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u4f9b\u9700\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u5c06\u9010\u6b65\u7f13\u89e3\uff0cCOMEX\u94dc\u7684\u5e93\u5b58\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e5f\u5c06\u968f\u77407\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5230\u8d27\u800c\u7ec8\u6b62\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the perspective of global visible inventories, inventories have decreased by about 300,000 tons since March. Considering China’s peak consumption in the second quarter and historical average inventory drawdowns, this decline is relatively moderate. The low inventories in China and LME are largely due to the diversion of copper to the US. Thus, after the tariffs take effect, refined copper trade flows will gradually normalize. The high US tariffs will increase import costs, making it difficult for electrolytic copper to flow into the US unless there is significant domestic supply-demand tightness. Non-US markets will gradually shift to a looser balance, with goods flowing in as import windows open. This will end the persistent premium structure in SHFE and LME in the first half of the year, as well as the implied squeeze risk. Currently, the LME Back structure has quickly shifted to Contango this week, while the near-month premium of Shanghai copper’s main contract has also collapsed, with the August-September contract spread falling from a high of 420 yuan\/ton to -20 yuan\/ton, and the September-October contract spread dropping to 50 yuan\/ton, maintaining a slight near-month premium. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in import profit margins and domestic consumption; if import windows open and domestic demand weakens, the inter-month spread may decline further. Additionally, the US has long-term contracts for about 500,000-600,000 tons of annual electrolytic copper imports. After the tariffs take effect, if these long-term contracts cannot be executed as scheduled due to spread issues, more electrolytic copper originally destined for the US will flood non-US markets.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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