宏观经济利好与市场情绪共振 不锈钢价格短期内有望波动上行
Macroeconomic Perspective: Policy Support Infuses Vitality into the Stainless Steel 市场
From a macroeconomic perspective, the introduction of a series of favorable policies has injected a shot in the arm into the 不锈钢 market. The government continues to increase investment in infrastructure construction, with large-scale projects in transportation, energy, and other fields being launched one after another. These projects have a huge demand for stainless steel, directly driving the consumption of stainless steel in the market. For example, the advancement of large-scale infrastructure projects such as highways, railways, and urban rail transit is inseparable from the support of a large amount of stainless steel materials. In addition, driven by the new “dual circulation” development pattern, the domestic consumer market continues to expand, and industries related to stainless steel, such as home appliances and kitchenware, have ushered in development opportunities, further stimulating the market demand for stainless steel.
The “dual circulation” strategy (integrating domestic and international markets) not only expands the domestic 不锈钢 market but also optimizes the industrial structure, improves product quality, further enhances the competitiveness of enterprises, consolidates and elevates the position of Chinese stainless steel products in the international market, and drives the growth of exports. With the continuous growth of both domestic and foreign demand, the prospects of the stainless steel industry will be even brighter.
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Cost Side: Rising Raw Material Prices Support Stainless Steel 价格
Nickel, chromium, and other key raw materials for 不锈钢 have seen rising prices, which have further driven up the price of stainless steel. Affected by the tight global supply of nickel ore and the scarcity of chromium ore resources, the prices of nickel and chromium have shown a steady upward trend recently. In particular, nickel ore is difficult to mine and has high environmental requirements. Coupled with increasingly stringent environmental regulations worldwide, nickel ore production is restricted, and market prices have naturally risen.
The rise in raw material prices has directly increased the production cost of 不锈钢. Under such circumstances, enterprises have to raise product prices to ensure profits, which has further prompted them to seek more efficient and environmentally friendly production processes and technologies. At present, some forward-looking enterprises have begun to increase research and development investment, explore the application of new alloy materials, and strive to develop products with better performance and lower costs to gain a more favorable position in the market.
供需分析：库存减少，但供需矛盾依然存在
截至 2025 年 7 月 24 日，社会库存总量为 不锈钢 全国主流市场89个仓库口径库存总量为1,118,586吨，周环比减少2.54%。其中，冷轧不锈钢社会库存总量为 625447 吨，周环比减少 2.43%；热轧不锈钢社会库存总量为 493139 吨，周环比减少 2.69%。本期，全国主流市场 89 个仓库口径不锈钢社会库存呈下降趋势，各系列均有不同程度的消化。
However, despite the reduction in inventory, contradictions between supply and demand still exist. On the supply side, steel mills are facing increased pressure from cost inversion and are suffering losses across all product lines, thus being forced to step up production cuts. At the same time, domestic anti-involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of overcapacity, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further in the future. On the demand side, although it has entered the traditional off-season for consumption, export demand still faces significant pressure due to increased uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. Downstream enterprises have a low acceptance of high-priced goods, resulting in poor digestion of domestic inventory.
市场情绪高涨：期货市场活跃，预计价格将向上波动
市场上的贸易商和下游企业也受到乐观情绪的影响，开始增加库存。这一现象表明，在宏观经济利好和市场情绪高涨的背景下，不锈钢价格短期内有向上波动的基础。值得注意的是，这种上涨并不完全依赖于市场情绪，而是基于实际需求的恢复和对未来发展的良好预期。
结论
To sum up, the current stainless steel market is in a complex, volatile, yet opportunity-filled period. On the one hand, benefiting from government policy support and the expansion of the domestic consumer market, the stainless steel industry has ushered in new development opportunities; on the other hand, the cost pressure brought by rising raw material prices is testing the wisdom and capabilities of every practitioner. Looking ahead, driven by macroeconomic benefits and market sentiment, stainless steel prices are expected to continue their fluctuating upward trend. However, in the face of global economic uncertainty and fierce market competition, how to seize opportunities and cope with challenges will be an important issue that every stainless steel enterprise must consider.