政策未能解决淡季困难；不锈钢市场有待突破

Cost support for stainless steel 宏观政策预期升温，经济略有走强  

Recently, ferronickel prices have edged up, with the latest transaction price standing at 920-922 yuan per nickel unit (ex-ship with tax). The market is caught in a game between cost support and weak demand. On the cost side, the Indonesian nickel ore market has weakened, and the supply of nickel ore remains relatively loose, which has alleviated the cost pressure of ferronickel to a certain extent. However, ore prices are still at a high level. Indonesia’s nickel ore price in August is expected to drop slightly by 1 US dollar, with limited decline and solid bottom support. On the supply side, some iron plants have reduced production load due to losses, but the oversupply pressure has not subsided. Quotations remain firm at 920-930 yuan per nickel unit (ex-ship with tax), and long-term orders are mainly at flat average prices. Steel mills are mostly in a wait-and-see attitude in raw material procurement. In addition, scrap 不锈钢 has been significantly substituted (with a premium of 35 yuan per nickel unit), making ferronickel far more economical than scrap stainless steel.  

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铬铁方面，受煤炭价格上涨和铬矿期货价格持平影响，铬铁成本底部企稳。8 月份，太钢、青钢采购价格相继下调 100-200 元。目前，铬铁价格弱稳。受未来铬铁钢厂采购价格下降的影响，现货价格仍有小幅回调的空间。但短期铬铁零售价格变化不大，工厂主要以交付订单为主。  

不锈钢 市场在政策影响下波动反弹，未来观望情绪加剧  

After 不锈钢 futures prices hit a five-year low in late June, there were intensive calls for “anti-involution” and elimination of backward production capacity, leading to a fluctuating rebound in stainless steel futures prices, with the highest reaching 12,875 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 500 yuan/ton from the low point of this round of prices. Subsequently, it fluctuated and adjusted around 12,700 yuan. At the 6th Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, it was clearly proposed to regulate enterprises’ low-price disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Affected by the news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s steady growth plan at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on July 18, the stimulus of “anti-involution” was further strengthened. Black commodities rebounded strongly this week. The combined force of policy and sentiment drove the market upward. The main stainless steel futures contract successfully broke through the strong resistance level at the 60-day moving average and the 13,000 yuan mark, with the intraday high reaching 13,130 yuan. However, it failed to stand firm, and the market fell rapidly. Long funds exited, while short funds took the opportunity to exert force, with the lowest touching 12,760 yuan/ton.  

Behind this fluctuation, despite the support of anti-involution policies, the weak fundamentals of industrial supply and demand continue to exert pressure. In addition, the Shanghai Futures Exchange approved Hongwang Holdings Group Co., Ltd. as a stainless steel futures delivery warehouse. The new delivery rules have increased the potential warehouse receipt supply in the market, curbing the excessive premium of futures prices. The premium of near-month contracts has narrowed rapidly, limiting the upward space of futures prices.  

As market sentiment cooled, 不锈钢 prices pulled back by 100-150 yuan/ton. Since current stainless steel prices are at a five-year low, and considering the cost of goods procurement, under the influence of off-season demand, agents and traders mostly adopt the operation of stabilizing prices to promote transactions. The recent price increase atmosphere has also driven downstream replenishment and speculative demand, accelerating the digestion of social inventory.  

行业淡季国内外不锈钢需求继续承压  

需求方面处于淡季，市场反弹后，观望情绪明显增强。  

传统下游行业的需求： The pace of new real estate construction is slow. The current off-season demand has led to low load demand for 不锈钢 in fields such as construction hardware and decorative pipes, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand. However, policy expectations (such as the steady growth plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) may boost future demand. From the perspective of the three major terminal white goods industries, according to the report of China IOL, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a decrease of 4.9% compared with the actual production in the same period last year.  

新兴下游行业的需求： Integrating the concept of low-carbon and environmental protection design, the extreme environment of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project has driven the demand for high-end stainless steel. Photovoltaic brackets and Chengdu-Chongqing infrastructure construction have supported the demand for 316L stainless steel, but the increment cannot offset the overall weakness. Under the trend of lightweight new energy vehicles, the growth in the usage of stainless steel in battery brackets has been partially replaced by aluminum alloys. Automobile enterprises also have an expected decline in growth rate under the anti-involution atmosphere.  

随着多国协定关税政策的逐步实施，海外进口商补货完毕，导致订单大幅减少，部分海外地区面临较大的库存压力。此外，中亚和东南亚市场受地缘政治风险和物流瓶颈制约，影响了地区供应链的稳定性，导致市场下滑。  

According to statistics from China Customs, domestic 不锈钢 export orders have been damaged due to U.S. tariffs and new European policies. Domestic stainless steel exports continued to decline in June, with a cumulative decrease of 80,700 tons from April to June this year, a drop of 17.14%. It is expected that stainless steel exports will remain at a low level in July.  

摘要  

Overall, macro policies have stimulated market sentiment in the short term, and cost support for stainless steel has slightly strengthened, but the market is still in a period of tug-of-war between “policy support and weak fundamentals”. Although policies such as “anti-involution” have driven the rise of the main futures contract, and steel mills have raised listed prices accordingly, the reality of weak terminal demand remains unchanged. At this stage, the market is returning to supply and demand fundamentals, and futures and spot prices have declined. We need to view market changes rationally. For a trend reversal in prices, we still need to wait for clear signs of improvement on both supply and demand sides. In the medium and long term, we need to continue to pay attention to changes in U.S. tariff policies and whether terminal demand can be substantially improved.