市场聚焦】铜：关税生效后
尽早实施 铜 关税将最直接地消除之前由关税预期驱动的套利机会，相应的贸易流动也将结束。LME 和国内铜现货市场阶段性的供需紧张局面将逐步缓解，COMEX 铜库存的累积速度也将随着 7 月份货物到港而终止。
Recently, Trump suddenly announced tariffs on the 铜 industry, stating that the United States will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective August 1, 2025. Upon the news release, COMEX copper prices surged to nearly $5.896 per pound, hitting a new all-time high again. Correspondingly, the US-London spread widened rapidly to over $3,100 per ton in a short period, equivalent to a 31.5% increase. Later, as market sentiment eased, the CL spread gradually pulled back to $2,500-$2,600 per ton, accounting for an increase of approximately 26%-27%.
回顾 铜 受今年关税预期的影响，自年初特朗普声称将对墨西哥和加拿大等国征收额外关税后，美伦铜价差开始扩大。3 月特朗普宣布对所有进口钢铝征收 25% 的关税后，铜关税预期增强，美伦价差保持在每吨 $1,000 以上。这打开了铜贸易的套利空间，大量铜现货从非美国地区流向美国，改变了传统的贸易流向，导致铜市场区域性结构矛盾持续存在。具体而言，中国和 LME 的库存持续下降，而 COMEX 的库存大幅上升。
As of the end of June, US visible 铜 inventories stood at approximately 210,000 tons, an increase of nearly 120,000 tons compared to early March. Non-US copper inventories were about 285,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 400,000 tons from early March. Considering that the second quarter coincided with China’s peak consumption season, coupled with factors such as a sharp drop in copper prices and new energy rush installations stimulating domestic downstream demand, excluding the impact of consumption, China’s net imports from January to May decreased by approximately 260,000 tons year-on-year, which is the direct impact of changes in overseas trade flows.
根据美国海关的数据，美国进口的精炼油包括 铜 今年 1 月至 5 月，美国电解铜进口量约为 68 万吨，同比增加 38 万吨。根据美国铜进口到港数据，截至 7 月初，约有 78 万吨电解铜运抵美国。正常年份，美国每年进口精炼铜约 70 万至 90 万吨，目前的进口量已相当于美国往年全年的水平，足以满足全年需求。
Breaking it down, the growth in US copper imports became apparent after March, with the increments mainly coming from Chile (207,000 tons) and the Congo (61,000 tons), contributing approximately 54% and 16% respectively. From Chile’s customs export data, Chile exported about 722,000 tons of refined copper from January to May, of which 354,000 tons went to the US (an increase of 190,000 tons year-on-year), while exports to China and South Korea were 123,000 tons and 33,000 tons respectively (a decrease of approximately 180,000 tons and 40,000 tons year-on-year). Thus, the opening of the arbitrage window has diverted more Chilean copper to the US, at the expense of some shares originally destined for Asia. According to China’s customs data, China imported about 1.346 million tons of electrolytic copper from January to May, including 527,000 tons from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (a decrease of approximately 18,000 tons year-on-year). However, Congo’s copper production increased by about 44,000 tons in the first half of the year, which roughly matches the growth in US imports. Therefore, before the tariff expectations were implemented, the arbitrage space in spot trade flows led to most circulable electrolytic copper in non-US regions flowing into the US.
展望未来，铜关税的提前实施将最直接地消除之前因关税预期而产生的套利机会，相应的贸易流动也将结束。LME和国内铜市阶段性供需紧张的局面将逐步缓解，COMEX铜的库存积累也将随着7月份的到货而终止。
From the perspective of global visible inventories, inventories have decreased by about 300,000 tons since March. Considering China’s peak consumption in the second quarter and historical average inventory drawdowns, this decline is relatively moderate. The low inventories in China and LME are largely due to the diversion of copper to the US. Thus, after the tariffs take effect, refined copper trade flows will gradually normalize. The high US tariffs will increase import costs, making it difficult for electrolytic copper to flow into the US unless there is significant domestic supply-demand tightness. Non-US markets will gradually shift to a looser balance, with goods flowing in as import windows open. This will end the persistent premium structure in SHFE and LME in the first half of the year, as well as the implied squeeze risk. Currently, the LME Back structure has quickly shifted to Contango this week, while the near-month premium of Shanghai copper’s main contract has also collapsed, with the August-September contract spread falling from a high of 420 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton, and the September-October contract spread dropping to 50 yuan/ton, maintaining a slight near-month premium. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in import profit margins and domestic consumption; if import windows open and domestic demand weakens, the inter-month spread may decline further. Additionally, the US has long-term contracts for about 500,000-600,000 tons of annual electrolytic copper imports. After the tariffs take effect, if these long-term contracts cannot be executed as scheduled due to spread issues, more electrolytic copper originally destined for the US will flood non-US markets.
当然，距离 8 月 1 日还有将近半个月的时间，潜在的风险有两个。首先，关税生效日期推迟，尽管可能性不大。如果出现这种情况，美国对非美国贸易流的虹吸作用将继续存在，这将使 LME 和国内库存难以大幅反弹。其次，美国铜关税可能将特定国家排除在外。根据美国的进口结构，美国每年精炼铜进口量中约有70%来自智利，17%来自加拿大，7%来自秘鲁，非洲的份额近年来逐渐上升至4%。如果美国豁免这些国家，尤其是智利，关税的影响将大大减弱，更多的智利铜将流向美国，填补国内缺口。如果美国豁免秘鲁和加拿大，关税影响将持续存在，但严重程度将低于不豁免的情况。秘鲁和加拿大每年共生产约 70 万吨电解铜；在这种情况下，铜贸易流将再次转移，这两个国家原本运往其他地区的大部分铜将流入美国。