High Costs and Weak Profitability: Aluminum Billet Faces a Rough Road
As of this cycle (November 6-13, 2025; the same below), according to Mysteel’s weekly statistics on the total aluminum liquid consumption of domestic primary aluminum processed products, the volume reached 545,840 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 900 tons from the previous period.
In terms of the weekly aluminum liquid consumption proportion of the five types of billets, the overall pattern this period continued the previous framework, with slight adjustments in the share among various categories. Compared with last week, the proportions of aluminum rod and slab ingot narrowed slightly, while the other varieties increased marginally month-on-month.
According to Mysteel data, the total weekly output of domestic primary aluminum processed products this period was 619,230 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.15%. The production rhythm of each category showed differences, with mixed month-on-month changes in weekly output. Among them, aluminum rod and slab ingot production decreased compared with the previous period, with aluminum rod seeing a significant drop. In contrast, the weekly output of aluminum bar, cast-rolled coil, and primary aluminum alloy ingot increased from the previous cycle, though the growth rates of aluminum bar and cast-rolled coil were relatively limited.
Aluminum Liquid Bar
The weekly output increased by 0.33% month-on-month. Among the 14 sampled regions, more than half of the provinces maintained stable operation with no obvious changes in production volume. However, weekly output in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Sichuan increased. Inner Mongolia’s growth was mainly driven by production resumption—enterprises that suspended production earlier due to maintenance have now resumed normal operations. Additionally, some enterprises in Shandong and Sichuan raised their output slightly. In contrast, weekly output in Guangxi and Qinghai decreased this cycle. A major aluminum bar manufacturer in Guangxi halved its production due to hardware failures, while another local enterprise adjusted its product mix, leading to a slight reduction in aluminum bar output.
Aluminum Rod
The weekly output fell by 4.06% month-on-month, a relatively obvious decline. Recently, aluminum prices have continued to soar, pushing up enterprise costs, while demand has remained sluggish. This has exacerbated the weak performance of spot processing fees for aluminum rod at low levels, and the discount trend in major consumption areas has also reflected this pressure. As a result, manufacturers’ production enthusiasm has dropped significantly, with concentrated production cuts and maintenance, leading to a corresponding decline in overall operating rates during the week. Key production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and Shandong all saw enterprises reducing output.
Cast-Rolled Coil
The weekly output rose by 0.74% month-on-month. Currently, domestic demand is underwhelming, and the continuous pressure from high aluminum prices has slowed down delivery speeds. Additionally, some downstream processing enterprises are facing slow payment collection and capital shortages, restricting their purchasing capacity. Nevertheless, recent export orders have been relatively stable. With the approaching overseas Christmas season, foreign trade orders have been front-loaded—orders received in October-November are successively entering the production and delivery cycle. This has boosted demand for cast-rolled coil from downstream plate and strip enterprises rushing to fulfill export orders, stimulating partial consumption.
Slab Ingot
The weekly output decreased by 0.41% month-on-month. The slab ingot market is generally on a stable trajectory, with most manufacturers maintaining a relatively steady operating rate. A few enterprises have made minor adjustments based on their actual production schedules.
Primary Aluminum Alloy Ingot
The weekly output increased by 3.17% month-on-month. Since the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in October, the weekly output of primary aluminum alloy ingot has continued to grow. Currently, downstream orders remain generally stable and positive. Although downstream purchasing has been cautious due to high aluminum prices, the supply and demand sides have remained relatively balanced supported by demand.
According to Mysteel data, the total finished product inventory of billet manufacturers this period was 263,500 tons, a slight decrease of 1.94% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of cast-rolled coil and aluminum bar increased, while the inventory of other varieties decreased.
Currently, the strong aluminum price trend has intensified manufacturers’ desire to cash in at high levels. However, both the market’s reluctance to accept high prices and the lack of sufficient orders have hindered the acceleration of commodity circulation. Manufacturers have attempted to boost sales by adjusting processing fees in a timely manner, but the results have been unsatisfactory. Some varieties have even reduced supply to digest inventory.
As November approaches its midpoint, the recent operation of the billet market shows that despite slight differences in supply and demand among varieties, the overall contradictions remain prominent. These factors have formed certain obstacles to the overall production expansion plan and the expectation of accelerating inventory reduction for billets.