{"id":5622,"date":"2025-09-17T11:48:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T03:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/?post_type=news&p=5622"},"modified":"2025-11-28T17:07:35","modified_gmt":"2025-11-28T09:07:35","slug":"copper-the-tariff-takes-effect","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/pt\/news\/copper-the-tariff-takes-effect\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010Foco no mercado\u3011Cobre: Depois que a tarifa entra em vigor"},"content":{"rendered":"

A aplica\u00e7\u00e3o precoce de cobre<\/a> As tarifas alfandeg\u00e1rias eliminar\u00e3o de forma mais direta as oportunidades de arbitragem anteriormente criadas pelas expectativas tarif\u00e1rias, com o fim dos fluxos comerciais correspondentes. O aperto faseado entre a oferta e a procura na LME e nos mercados nacionais \u00e0 vista de cobre diminuir\u00e1 gradualmente, e o ritmo de acumula\u00e7\u00e3o dos stocks de cobre da COMEX terminar\u00e1 com a chegada das mercadorias aos portos em julho.   <\/p>\n\n\n

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Recently, Trump suddenly announced tariffs on the cobre<\/a> industry, stating that the United States will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective August 1, 2025. Upon the news release, COMEX copper prices surged to nearly $5.896 per pound, hitting a new all-time high again. Correspondingly, the US-London spread widened rapidly to over $3,100 per ton in a short period, equivalent to a 31.5% increase. Later, as market sentiment eased, the CL spread gradually pulled back to $2,500-$2,600 per ton, accounting for an increase of approximately 26%-27%.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Olhando para tr\u00e1s, para o cobre<\/a> Sob a influ\u00eancia das expectativas tarif\u00e1rias deste ano, o spread EUA-Londres come\u00e7ou a alargar-se desde o in\u00edcio do ano, quando Trump afirmou que iria impor tarifas adicionais a pa\u00edses como o M\u00e9xico e o Canad\u00e1. Depois que Trump anunciou uma tarifa de 25% sobre todo o a\u00e7o e alum\u00ednio importados em mar\u00e7o, as expectativas de tarifas de cobre se fortaleceram, mantendo o spread EUA-Londres acima de $1.000 por tonelada. Isso abriu espa\u00e7o de arbitragem no com\u00e9rcio de cobre, com grandes quantidades de cobre \u00e0 vista fluindo de regi\u00f5es n\u00e3o americanas para os Estados Unidos, alterando os fluxos comerciais tradicionais e levando a persistentes contradi\u00e7\u00f5es estruturais regionais nos mercados de cobre. Especificamente, as exist\u00eancias na China e na LME continuaram a diminuir, enquanto as exist\u00eancias no COMEX aumentaram acentuadamente.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of the end of June, US visible cobre<\/a> inventories stood at approximately 210,000 tons, an increase of nearly 120,000 tons compared to early March. Non-US copper inventories were about 285,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 400,000 tons from early March. Considering that the second quarter coincided with China’s peak consumption season, coupled with factors such as a sharp drop in copper prices and new energy rush installations stimulating domestic downstream demand, excluding the impact of consumption, China’s net imports from January to May decreased by approximately 260,000 tons year-on-year, which is the direct impact of changes in overseas trade flows.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

De acordo com os dados aduaneiros dos EUA, as importa\u00e7\u00f5es americanas de produtos refinados cobre<\/a> de janeiro a maio deste ano atingiu aproximadamente 680.000 toneladas, um aumento de 380.000 toneladas em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano anterior. Com base nos dados sobre as importa\u00e7\u00f5es de cobre dos EUA que chegam aos portos, no in\u00edcio de julho, aproximadamente 780.000 toneladas de cobre eletrol\u00edtico tinham chegado aos EUA. Num ano normal, os EUA importam anualmente cerca de 700.000-900.000 toneladas de cobre refinado, e o atual volume de importa\u00e7\u00e3o j\u00e1 \u00e9 equivalente ao n\u00edvel do ano inteiro dos EUA em anos anteriores, suficiente para satisfazer a procura anual.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breaking it down, the growth in US copper imports became apparent after March, with the increments mainly coming from Chile (207,000 tons) and the Congo (61,000 tons), contributing approximately 54% and 16% respectively. From Chile’s customs export data, Chile exported about 722,000 tons of refined copper from January to May, of which 354,000 tons went to the US (an increase of 190,000 tons year-on-year), while exports to China and South Korea were 123,000 tons and 33,000 tons respectively (a decrease of approximately 180,000 tons and 40,000 tons year-on-year). Thus, the opening of the arbitrage window has diverted more Chilean copper to the US, at the expense of some shares originally destined for Asia. According to China’s customs data, China imported about 1.346 million tons of electrolytic copper from January to May, including 527,000 tons from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (a decrease of approximately 18,000 tons year-on-year). However, Congo’s copper production increased by about 44,000 tons in the first half of the year, which roughly matches the growth in US imports. Therefore, before the tariff expectations were implemented, the arbitrage space in spot trade flows led to most circulable electrolytic copper in non-US regions flowing into the US.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Em termos prospectivos, a implementa\u00e7\u00e3o antecipada das tarifas sobre o cobre eliminar\u00e1 de forma mais direta as anteriores oportunidades de arbitragem, impulsionadas pelas expectativas tarif\u00e1rias, com o fim dos correspondentes fluxos comerciais. O aperto faseado entre a oferta e a procura na LME e nos mercados nacionais de cobre ir\u00e1 diminuir gradualmente e a acumula\u00e7\u00e3o de stocks de cobre na COMEX terminar\u00e1 com a chegada das mercadorias em julho.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the perspective of global visible inventories, inventories have decreased by about 300,000 tons since March. Considering China’s peak consumption in the second quarter and historical average inventory drawdowns, this decline is relatively moderate. The low inventories in China and LME are largely due to the diversion of copper to the US. Thus, after the tariffs take effect, refined copper trade flows will gradually normalize. The high US tariffs will increase import costs, making it difficult for electrolytic copper to flow into the US unless there is significant domestic supply-demand tightness. Non-US markets will gradually shift to a looser balance, with goods flowing in as import windows open. This will end the persistent premium structure in SHFE and LME in the first half of the year, as well as the implied squeeze risk. Currently, the LME Back structure has quickly shifted to Contango this week, while the near-month premium of Shanghai copper’s main contract has also collapsed, with the August-September contract spread falling from a high of 420 yuan\/ton to -20 yuan\/ton, and the September-October contract spread dropping to 50 yuan\/ton, maintaining a slight near-month premium. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in import profit margins and domestic consumption; if import windows open and domestic demand weakens, the inter-month spread may decline further. Additionally, the US has long-term contracts for about 500,000-600,000 tons of annual electrolytic copper imports. After the tariffs take effect, if these long-term contracts cannot be executed as scheduled due to spread issues, more electrolytic copper originally destined for the US will flood non-US markets.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c9 claro que ainda falta quase meio m\u00eas para o dia 1 de agosto, com dois riscos potenciais. Primeiro, um atraso na data de entrada em vigor da tarifa, embora improv\u00e1vel. Se isso ocorrer, o desvio dos fluxos comerciais n\u00e3o americanos pelos EUA continuar\u00e1, dificultando a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o significativa da LME e dos estoques dom\u00e9sticos. Em segundo lugar, a possibilidade de as tarifas de cobre dos EUA exclu\u00edrem pa\u00edses espec\u00edficos. Com base na estrutura de importa\u00e7\u00e3o dos EUA, aproximadamente 70% das suas importa\u00e7\u00f5es anuais de cobre refinado prov\u00eam do Chile, 17% do Canad\u00e1, 7% do Peru e a quota de \u00c1frica aumentou gradualmente para 4% nos \u00faltimos anos. Se os EUA isentarem estes pa\u00edses, especialmente o Chile, o impacto dos direitos aduaneiros ser\u00e1 significativamente reduzido, com mais cobre chileno a fluir para os EUA para preencher as lacunas internas. Se os EUA isentarem o Peru e o Canad\u00e1, o impacto dos direitos aduaneiros persistir\u00e1, mas ser\u00e1 menos grave do que na aus\u00eancia de isen\u00e7\u00f5es. O Peru e o Canad\u00e1 produzem um total de cerca de 700.000 toneladas de cobre eletrol\u00edtico por ano; neste cen\u00e1rio, os fluxos comerciais de cobre deslocar-se-\u00e3o novamente, com a maior parte do cobre originalmente destinado a outras regi\u00f5es destes dois pa\u00edses a fluir para os EUA.<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":5625,"parent":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"\u3010Market Focus\u3011Copper: After the Tariff Takes Effect","_seopress_titles_desc":"US 50% copper tariff (Aug 1,2025): ends arbitrage\/trade flows, eases LME\/domestic tightness; watches tariff delays\/exemptions.","_seopress_robots_index":""},"news-category":[],"class_list":["post-5622","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/5622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"news-category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-category?post=5622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}