Benefícios macroeconómicos repercutem-se no sentimento do mercado Prevê-se que os preços do aço inoxidável subam a curto prazo
Macroeconomic Perspective: Policy Support Infuses Vitality into the Stainless Steel Mercado
From a macroeconomic perspective, the introduction of a series of favorable policies has injected a shot in the arm into the aço inoxidável market. The government continues to increase investment in infrastructure construction, with large-scale projects in transportation, energy, and other fields being launched one after another. These projects have a huge demand for stainless steel, directly driving the consumption of stainless steel in the market. For example, the advancement of large-scale infrastructure projects such as highways, railways, and urban rail transit is inseparable from the support of a large amount of stainless steel materials. In addition, driven by the new “dual circulation” development pattern, the domestic consumer market continues to expand, and industries related to stainless steel, such as home appliances and kitchenware, have ushered in development opportunities, further stimulating the market demand for stainless steel.
The “dual circulation” strategy (integrating domestic and international markets) not only expands the domestic aço inoxidável market but also optimizes the industrial structure, improves product quality, further enhances the competitiveness of enterprises, consolidates and elevates the position of Chinese stainless steel products in the international market, and drives the growth of exports. With the continuous growth of both domestic and foreign demand, the prospects of the stainless steel industry will be even brighter.
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Cost Side: Rising Raw Material Prices Support Stainless Steel Preços
Nickel, chromium, and other key raw materials for aço inoxidável have seen rising prices, which have further driven up the price of stainless steel. Affected by the tight global supply of nickel ore and the scarcity of chromium ore resources, the prices of nickel and chromium have shown a steady upward trend recently. In particular, nickel ore is difficult to mine and has high environmental requirements. Coupled with increasingly stringent environmental regulations worldwide, nickel ore production is restricted, and market prices have naturally risen.
The rise in raw material prices has directly increased the production cost of aço inoxidável. Under such circumstances, enterprises have to raise product prices to ensure profits, which has further prompted them to seek more efficient and environmentally friendly production processes and technologies. At present, some forward-looking enterprises have begun to increase research and development investment, explore the application of new alloy materials, and strive to develop products with better performance and lower costs to gain a more favorable position in the market.
Análise da oferta e da procura: Redução de stocks, mas persistem as contradições entre a oferta e a procura
A partir de 24 de julho de 2025, o inventário social total de aço inoxidável em 89 calibres de armazém nos principais mercados do país foi de 1.118.586 toneladas, um decréscimo semanal de 2.54%. Entre eles, o estoque total de aço inoxidável laminado a frio foi de 625.447 toneladas, uma diminuição semana a semana de 2.43%; o estoque total de aço inoxidável laminado a quente foi de 493.139 toneladas, uma diminuição semana a semana de 2.69%. Neste período, o estoque social de aço inoxidável em 89 calibres de armazém nos principais mercados nacionais mostrou uma tendência de queda, com várias séries sendo digeridas em graus variados.
However, despite the reduction in inventory, contradictions between supply and demand still exist. On the supply side, steel mills are facing increased pressure from cost inversion and are suffering losses across all product lines, thus being forced to step up production cuts. At the same time, domestic anti-involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of overcapacity, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further in the future. On the demand side, although it has entered the traditional off-season for consumption, export demand still faces significant pressure due to increased uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. Downstream enterprises have a low acceptance of high-priced goods, resulting in poor digestion of domestic inventory.
Aumento do sentimento de mercado: Mercado de Futuros Ativo, Preços Previstos para Flutuarem em Alta
Os comerciantes e as empresas a jusante no mercado também foram afectados pelo sentimento otimista e começaram a aumentar as suas existências. Este fenómeno indica que, no contexto dos benefícios macroeconómicos e do aumento do sentimento do mercado, os preços do aço inoxidável têm a base para flutuar para cima a curto prazo. É de notar que esta subida não depende apenas do sentimento do mercado, mas baseia-se na recuperação da procura efectiva e nas boas expectativas de evolução futura.
Conclusão
To sum up, the current stainless steel market is in a complex, volatile, yet opportunity-filled period. On the one hand, benefiting from government policy support and the expansion of the domestic consumer market, the stainless steel industry has ushered in new development opportunities; on the other hand, the cost pressure brought by rising raw material prices is testing the wisdom and capabilities of every practitioner. Looking ahead, driven by macroeconomic benefits and market sentiment, stainless steel prices are expected to continue their fluctuating upward trend. However, in the face of global economic uncertainty and fierce market competition, how to seize opportunities and cope with challenges will be an important issue that every stainless steel enterprise must consider.