In July 2025, under the dual influence of the traditional consumption off-season and the reconstruction of the global supply chain, the price of the brass market showed the significant characteristics of "regional differentiation, variety differentiation, and short-term fluctuations". Based on the core market data of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and North China, this article combines the futures market, scrap copper raw materials, processing demand and other dimensions to reveal the internal logic of the current brass price fluctuations.
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1. Price Panorama: Regional Price Differences Narrow, Variety Premiums Differentiate
As of July 17, 2025, the brass prices in major markets across the country showed the following pattern:
Regional price differences: The middle price of H62 brass bars in the Yangtze River Delta region stabilized at 58,500 yuan/ton, up 3.4% from the previous month; the price of large brass pieces in the Pearl River Delta region was 46,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of miscellaneous copper in the North China market was 46,200 yuan/ton, basically the same as that in South China. The regional price difference narrowed from 8%-10% at the beginning of the year to less than 5%, reflecting the decline in logistics costs and the compression of arbitrage space.
Variety premium: The price of high-precision copper strip (0.6mm) reached 81,780 yuan/ton, a 40% premium over ordinary brass rods; while the price of brass wire with a zinc content of 1% fluctuated by 0.8 yuan/kg per liter, indicating that the demand for high-end manufacturing is more sensitive to quality.
2. Price drivers: Three forces intertwined
Raw material side: Tight balance of scrap copper supply
Scrap copper accounts for 65%-70% of the production cost of brass. Since July, the price of scrap copper has shown a trend of "firm in the Yangtze River Delta and loose in the north": the price of bright copper in Shanghai is 72,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous month; while the price of motor copper in Linyi, Shandong is 68,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. This differentiation stems from the fact that the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 7.11% month-on-month, and there is a strong demand for raw material replenishment, while the northern market has seen a decrease in scrap copper dismantling due to the end of the air conditioning installation season.
The obstruction of overseas scrap copper imports has exacerbated supply tensions. In the first half of 2025, China's imports of recycled copper raw materials fell by 12% year-on-year, resulting in the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper remaining above 4,000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of recycled copper rod enterprises was compressed to below 200 yuan/ton.
Production side: Smelting profit inversion and production reduction expectations
The TC processing fee of copper concentrate continued to run at a historical low of -44 US dollars/ton, causing the loss of electrolytic copper smelting enterprises to expand to 1,701 yuan/ton. Although brass production mainly uses scrap copper raw materials, the price fluctuation of electrolytic copper still affects market sentiment through the transmission chain of "copper price-scrap copper-brass".
The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises showed structural differentiation: the operating rate of refined copper rods was 82.61% in July, but the operating rate of brass rod enterprises was less than 60% due to the weak real estate market, forming a scissors gap of "tight upstream and weak downstream".
Demand side: Support from emerging fields and off-season effect
New energy vehicles, 5G base stations and other emerging demands have become highlights. For example, a copper strip enterprise in Zhejiang reported that its electronic and electrical orders increased by 25% year-on-year, driving the price of T2 copper strip to rise against the trend.
Traditional demand continues to be under pressure. The air-conditioning industry has entered the installation off-season, and the orders of copper pipe enterprises have dropped by 9.38% month-on-month. Some companies have responded to price fluctuations through the "long order + scattered order flexible bargaining" model.
3. Future Outlook: The third quarter may usher in a phased rebound
Supply side: Expectations for production cuts are rising
As the trend of tight copper concentrate supply intensifies, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to drop by 3.57% month-on-month in the second half of the year. Combined with the smelter maintenance plan, raw material cost support is expected to strengthen.
Demand side: policy support and consumption upgrade
The country's "two new" policies (large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement) continue to exert force, which is expected to drive copper consumption growth by 2-3 percentage points. At the same time, the demand for high-zinc brass such as H65 and H68 in the high-end manufacturing field has an average annual growth rate of 8%, promoting product structure optimization.
Price range: short-term fluctuations, medium-term bullish
On the whole, brass prices may fluctuate in the range of 58,000-60,000 yuan/ton from July to August, but with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" consumption peak season at the end of the third quarter, prices are expected to break through the 62,000 yuan/ton mark. We need to pay close attention to the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the risk of strikes in overseas mines, and changes in domestic scrap copper import policies.
The current brass market is in a tug-of-war between "traditional cycle downturn" and "emerging demand upturn". Enterprises need to lock in raw material costs through hedging, while increasing the research and development of high-value-added products to cope with the dual challenges of price fluctuations and demand structure transformation. For investors, paying attention to the TC cost of copper concentrate, the operating rate of recycled copper rods, and the production and sales data of new energy vehicles will become the key to grasping the market rhythm.
