{"id":5622,"date":"2025-09-17T11:48:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T03:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/?post_type=news&p=5622"},"modified":"2025-11-28T17:07:35","modified_gmt":"2025-11-28T09:07:35","slug":"copper-the-tariff-takes-effect","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/es\/news\/copper-the-tariff-takes-effect\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010Market Focus\u3011Cobre: Despu\u00e9s de la entrada en vigor del arancel"},"content":{"rendered":"

La pronta aplicaci\u00f3n de cobre<\/a> Los aranceles eliminar\u00e1n de forma m\u00e1s directa las oportunidades de arbitraje impulsadas anteriormente por las expectativas arancelarias, y los flujos comerciales correspondientes llegar\u00e1n a su fin. La tensi\u00f3n escalonada entre la oferta y la demanda en la LME y en los mercados nacionales de cobre al contado se reducir\u00e1 gradualmente, y el ritmo de acumulaci\u00f3n de existencias de cobre en COMEX terminar\u00e1 a medida que las mercanc\u00edas lleguen a los puertos en julio.   <\/p>\n\n\n

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Recently, Trump suddenly announced tariffs on the cobre<\/a> industry, stating that the United States will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective August 1, 2025. Upon the news release, COMEX copper prices surged to nearly $5.896 per pound, hitting a new all-time high again. Correspondingly, the US-London spread widened rapidly to over $3,100 per ton in a short period, equivalent to a 31.5% increase. Later, as market sentiment eased, the CL spread gradually pulled back to $2,500-$2,600 per ton, accounting for an increase of approximately 26%-27%.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mirando hacia atr\u00e1s cobre<\/a> mercado bajo la influencia de las expectativas arancelarias este a\u00f1o, el diferencial EEUU-Londres comenz\u00f3 a ampliarse desde principios de a\u00f1o, cuando Trump afirm\u00f3 que impondr\u00eda aranceles adicionales a pa\u00edses como M\u00e9xico y Canad\u00e1. Despu\u00e9s de que Trump anunciara un arancel de 25% sobre todo el acero y el aluminio importados en marzo, las expectativas de aranceles sobre el cobre se fortalecieron, manteniendo el diferencial EEUU-Londres por encima de $1.000 por tonelada. Esto abri\u00f3 un espacio de arbitraje en el comercio de cobre, con grandes cantidades de cobre al contado fluyendo de regiones no estadounidenses a los Estados Unidos, alterando los flujos comerciales tradicionales y dando lugar a contradicciones estructurales regionales persistentes en los mercados de cobre. Concretamente, las existencias en China y en la LME siguieron disminuyendo, mientras que las de COMEX aumentaron considerablemente.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of the end of June, US visible cobre<\/a> inventories stood at approximately 210,000 tons, an increase of nearly 120,000 tons compared to early March. Non-US copper inventories were about 285,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 400,000 tons from early March. Considering that the second quarter coincided with China’s peak consumption season, coupled with factors such as a sharp drop in copper prices and new energy rush installations stimulating domestic downstream demand, excluding the impact of consumption, China’s net imports from January to May decreased by approximately 260,000 tons year-on-year, which is the direct impact of changes in overseas trade flows.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seg\u00fan los datos de las aduanas estadounidenses, las importaciones estadounidenses de refinados cobre<\/a> de enero a mayo de este a\u00f1o alcanzaron aproximadamente 680.000 toneladas, lo que supone un aumento interanual de 380.000 toneladas. Seg\u00fan los datos sobre las importaciones estadounidenses de cobre que llegan a los puertos, a principios de julio hab\u00edan llegado a EE.UU. unas 780.000 toneladas de cobre electrol\u00edtico. En un a\u00f1o normal, EE.UU. importa anualmente unas 700.000-900.000 toneladas de cobre refinado, y el volumen de importaci\u00f3n actual equivale ya al nivel de todo el a\u00f1o de EE.UU. en a\u00f1os anteriores, suficiente para satisfacer la demanda anual.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breaking it down, the growth in US copper imports became apparent after March, with the increments mainly coming from Chile (207,000 tons) and the Congo (61,000 tons), contributing approximately 54% and 16% respectively. From Chile’s customs export data, Chile exported about 722,000 tons of refined copper from January to May, of which 354,000 tons went to the US (an increase of 190,000 tons year-on-year), while exports to China and South Korea were 123,000 tons and 33,000 tons respectively (a decrease of approximately 180,000 tons and 40,000 tons year-on-year). Thus, the opening of the arbitrage window has diverted more Chilean copper to the US, at the expense of some shares originally destined for Asia. According to China’s customs data, China imported about 1.346 million tons of electrolytic copper from January to May, including 527,000 tons from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (a decrease of approximately 18,000 tons year-on-year). However, Congo’s copper production increased by about 44,000 tons in the first half of the year, which roughly matches the growth in US imports. Therefore, before the tariff expectations were implemented, the arbitrage space in spot trade flows led to most circulable electrolytic copper in non-US regions flowing into the US.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

De cara al futuro, la pronta aplicaci\u00f3n de los aranceles sobre el cobre eliminar\u00e1 de forma m\u00e1s directa las anteriores oportunidades de arbitraje impulsadas por las expectativas arancelarias, con el correspondiente fin de los flujos comerciales. La tensi\u00f3n escalonada entre la oferta y la demanda en los mercados del cobre de la LME y nacionales disminuir\u00e1 gradualmente, y la acumulaci\u00f3n de existencias de cobre en COMEX terminar\u00e1 a medida que lleguen las mercanc\u00edas en julio.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the perspective of global visible inventories, inventories have decreased by about 300,000 tons since March. Considering China’s peak consumption in the second quarter and historical average inventory drawdowns, this decline is relatively moderate. The low inventories in China and LME are largely due to the diversion of copper to the US. Thus, after the tariffs take effect, refined copper trade flows will gradually normalize. The high US tariffs will increase import costs, making it difficult for electrolytic copper to flow into the US unless there is significant domestic supply-demand tightness. Non-US markets will gradually shift to a looser balance, with goods flowing in as import windows open. This will end the persistent premium structure in SHFE and LME in the first half of the year, as well as the implied squeeze risk. Currently, the LME Back structure has quickly shifted to Contango this week, while the near-month premium of Shanghai copper’s main contract has also collapsed, with the August-September contract spread falling from a high of 420 yuan\/ton to -20 yuan\/ton, and the September-October contract spread dropping to 50 yuan\/ton, maintaining a slight near-month premium. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in import profit margins and domestic consumption; if import windows open and domestic demand weakens, the inter-month spread may decline further. Additionally, the US has long-term contracts for about 500,000-600,000 tons of annual electrolytic copper imports. After the tariffs take effect, if these long-term contracts cannot be executed as scheduled due to spread issues, more electrolytic copper originally destined for the US will flood non-US markets.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por supuesto, a\u00fan queda casi medio mes hasta el 1 de agosto, con dos riesgos potenciales. En primer lugar, un retraso en la fecha de entrada en vigor del arancel, aunque poco probable. Si esto ocurre, Estados Unidos seguir\u00e1 desviando los flujos comerciales no estadounidenses, lo que dificultar\u00e1 un repunte significativo de los inventarios nacionales y de la LME. En segundo lugar, la posibilidad de que los aranceles estadounidenses sobre el cobre excluyan a determinados pa\u00edses. Seg\u00fan la estructura de importaci\u00f3n de EE.UU., aproximadamente 70% de sus importaciones anuales de cobre refinado proceden de Chile, 17% de Canad\u00e1, 7% de Per\u00fa, y la cuota de \u00c1frica ha aumentado gradualmente hasta 4% en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os. Si EE.UU. exime a estos pa\u00edses, especialmente a Chile, el impacto de los aranceles se debilitar\u00e1 significativamente, con un mayor flujo de cobre chileno hacia EE.UU. para cubrir las carencias nacionales. Si EE.UU. exime a Per\u00fa y Canad\u00e1, el impacto arancelario persistir\u00e1 pero ser\u00e1 menos grave que sin exenciones. Per\u00fa y Canad\u00e1 producen en total unas 700.000 toneladas de cobre electrol\u00edtico al a\u00f1o; en este escenario, los flujos comerciales de cobre volver\u00e1n a desplazarse, y la mayor parte del cobre destinado originalmente a otras regiones de estos dos pa\u00edses fluir\u00e1 hacia EE.UU.<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":5625,"parent":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"\u3010Market Focus\u3011Copper: After the Tariff Takes Effect","_seopress_titles_desc":"US 50% copper tariff (Aug 1,2025): ends arbitrage\/trade flows, eases LME\/domestic tightness; watches tariff delays\/exemptions.","_seopress_robots_index":""},"news-category":[],"class_list":["post-5622","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/5622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"news-category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sumecmetal.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news-category?post=5622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}