Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at High Levels; Billet Inventory Destocking and Monetization Accelerate

As of this cycle (December 4-11, 2025, the same below), according to Mysteel data, the total weekly consumption of molten aluminum for domestic primary aluminum-based processed products reached 546,570 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,620 tons.

By Product Category

The weekly molten aluminum consumption of all five types of billets decreased compared with last week. Among them, the continuous growth momentum of primary aluminum-based alloy ingots in the previous period has temporarily slowed down.

In terms of the proportion of weekly molten aluminum consumption by product category, the overall structure remained relatively stable with only minor adjustments. Aluminum rods accounted for over 60% of the total consumption, continuing to lead other products. Additionally, due to the shift from growth to decline in molten aluminum consumption of primary aluminum-based alloy ingots this week, their share of the total consumption decreased slightly compared with the previous period.

Weekly Production of Primary Aluminum-Based Processed Products

According to Mysteel data, the total weekly output of domestic primary aluminum-based processed products was 618,520 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,920 tons, with weekly output of all five types of billets declining.

• Aluminum Water Rods: Weekly output decreased by 0.50% month-on-month. Among 14 sample provinces and regions, the weekly output of more than half of the regions remained basically stable. The output reduction was mainly concentrated in Shandong, Xinjiang, and Sichuan. A local aluminum rod manufacturer in Shandong recently cut production by 10%, a manufacturer in Xinjiang started reducing output last weekend (by approximately 20%), and some sporadic rod factories in Sichuan also implemented production cuts. It is reported that the output adjustments by these enterprises are mainly driven by demand and aluminum prices—insufficient orders and high cost pressure have forced enterprises to make moderate operational adjustments.
• Aluminum Rods: Weekly output decreased by 0.26% month-on-month. In mid-November, affected by concentrated production cuts by some manufacturers in the industry, the weekly output of aluminum rods once dropped to around 80,000 tons. Subsequently, the decline in aluminum prices boosted partial purchasing willingness, leading to a slight increase in output. However, recent downstream operating rates remained weak amid the consumption off-season, with insufficient enthusiasm for taking delivery. Overall order support was limited. In addition, processing fees remained low amid high aluminum prices, restricting the production momentum of aluminum rod manufacturers and resulting in a slight output reduction again.
• Cast-Rolled Coils: Weekly output decreased by 0.46% month-on-month. This week, due to strengthened air pollution control in many areas of Henan, production and transportation of cast-rolled coil billets were restricted, and the resumption of production by some enterprises was hindered. Demand remained sluggish: high aluminum prices dampened downstream enthusiasm for taking delivery, demand in the construction and packaging sectors declined, and downstream curtain wall manufacturers planned to advance production cuts to end in December. Only single-zero packaging foil saw a slight improvement due to year-end restocking demand.
• Slab Ingots: Weekly output decreased by 0.31% month-on-month. Although the downward trend in output continued, the overall decline narrowed slightly. At present, most manufacturers are producing according to their scheduled plans. However, aluminum prices remain at high levels, leading to low downstream acceptance and weak inventory replenishment willingness, which has affected order volumes to a certain extent.
• Primary Aluminum-Based Alloy Ingots: Weekly output decreased by 1% month-on-month. Since mid-October, supported by reasonable demand, the weekly output of primary aluminum-based alloy ingots has continued to increase. Currently, although the consumption side remains stable, frequent and significant fluctuations in recent aluminum prices have slowed down enterprises’ purchasing and delivery rhythms, fostering a cautious wait-and-see sentiment and directly impacting the production efficiency of some manufacturers.

Palanquilla Inventory Status

According to Mysteel data, the total finished product inventory of billet manufacturers stood at 234,600 tons this week, a decrease of 10,600 tons compared with the previous period.

Against the backdrop of aluminum prices fluctuating at high levels, manufacturers have continued to promote sales volume to accelerate inventory monetization. Especially amid the volatile market conditions, for the sake of prudence, some enterprises adhere to the principle of “producing and clearing inventory on the same day.” In addition, some enterprises with regular inventory have also moderately adjusted their inventory volumes to avoid additional potential risks. Despite certain resistance in the process of inventory turnover, overall inventory destocking has been achieved with the combination of “trading price for volume” and supply-side reductions.

Aluminum prices have fluctuated with occasional corrections, but downstream enterprises still hold an aversion to the current high prices, which are mismatched with the current demand situation. Plagued by insufficient orders, downstream enterprises remain cautious in purchasing raw materials, focusing on rigid demand with low procurement volumes. This has greatly restrained the production enthusiasm of billet manufacturers. Meanwhile, as the year-end approaches, clearing inventory for monetization and smooth capital recovery have become current priorities. However, there are still various internal and external disturbances and obstacles along the way, leaving most holders in a dilemma between volume and price. In the short term, the overall output of primary processed products is prone to decrease rather than increase. Nevertheless, given the volatile market, continuous attention is required.